One thinks that there is some fat in betting on under four and a half goals in Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division game between Barcelona and Las Palmas at Camp Nou.
Bookmakers know that Spanish Primera Division punters like to bet on Barcelona matches being high scoring so they tend to protect the overs. But one thinks that they have gone too far in the 18th round of Spanish Primera Division games.
More of Barcelona’s Spanish Primera Division matches have gone over four and a half goals than those featuring any other top-flight team but, even so, 11 of them have gone under that particular mark. Las Palmas is eighth on the Spanish Primera Division ladder and none of Barcelona’s six league games versus sides ranked higher than ninth has gone over four and a half goals. Indeed, those half a dozen Spanish Primera Division matches have had totals of one goal (once), two goals (four times) and three goals (once) for an average of exactly two goals per game. Most of Barcelona’s high-scoring Spanish Primera Division matches have occurred when Barca has faced teams on the bottom half of the ladder.
With 888Sport and Unibet offering odds of -156 about the Spanish Primera Division game between Barcelona and Las Palmas, one is willing to take a punt on the Yellows being resolute at Camp Nou. Just four of the 17 Spanish Primera Division matches featuring Las Palmas have gone over four and a half goals – two of them were when the Yellows handed out spankings to Valencia and Granada, while there were game-changing red cards in the other two games. Las Palmas has played six Spanish Primera Division matches versus higher ranked opponents and five of them have gone under four and a half goals, including away to Sevilla.
Recent Spanish Primera Division meetings between Barcelona and Las Palmas have been rare because the sides have played in different leagues but each of last season’s clashes ended 2-1 in favour of Barca – including the match at the Nou Camp – so that is another small tick.
There is a case for backing a half-time draw in the Spanish Primera Division game between Celta and Alaves on Sunday, an option that is available at odds of +122 with Marathonbet.
According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, there is little to choose between Celta and Alaves in spite of the Sky Blues being two points and three rungs above the Babazorros on the league ladder. Celta and Alaves are tied on 7-2-7, with the Babazorros outperforming the Sky Blues against the Spanish Primera Division’s top teams.
Only Espanyol has taken part in more Spanish Primera Division half-time draws than Celta and Alaves. Eleven of Celta’s 17 Spanish Primera Division matches have been level at half time, including six of its nine home games. And 11 of the 17 Spanish Primera Division matches featuring Alaves have been all square at the interval, including six of its nine away games. MarathonBet’s offer of odds against seems somewhat generous in light of one’s cited statistics.
There will be a massive Spanish Primera Division relegation clash on Sunday when 19th-placed Granada hosts the cellar dweller, Osasuna, in a match that both sides must endeavour to win. However, one thinks that the draw represents value at odds of +260 with Betfred and Marathonbet.
According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Granada and Osasuna are level on 6-4-6 and 11 of their combined 34 league games have ended without a winner. Granada should not be odds on to overcome Osasuna and, therefore, one is heading towards the draw at good odds.
Barcelona v Las Palmas – Under 4.5 Goals
Saturday 14th January, 15:15 GMT
Celta Vigo v Alaves – Half Time Draw
Sunday 15th January, 15:15 GMT
Granada and Osasuna to Draw
Sunday 15th January, 17:30 GMT