Monaco’s UEFA Champions League last-16 tie versus Manchester City was entertaining from beginning to end and one thinks that the French Ligue 1 leader’s quarter-final first leg away to Dortmund has the potential to be fun as well.
Dortmund is a long way from being the top team in the German Bundesliga as evidenced by its results against its closest challengers for honours – the Black and Yellows are 2-2-2 versus fellow top-five sides, including Saturday’s 1-4 loss at Bayern Munchen. Dortmund’s problem is that its defence is not up to German Bundesliga title-winning standard, which means that the Black and Yellows are vulnerable on their travels and at home to the cream of the continent. One agrees that Dortmund merits favouritism for its UEFA Champions League home date with Monaco – after all, the Red and Whites failed to beat German Bundesliga flop Leverkusen during the group stage – but odds on is too short for the Black and Yellows versus one of Europe’s premier attacks.
Monaco’s French Ligue 1 offensive statistics are a sight to behold – the Red and Whites have fired only one blank in 31 domestic league matches, netting an incredible 88 goals. Monaco and Manchester City shared 12 goals in the previous UEFA Champions League round and the Red and Whites qualified for the last eight by virtue of the away goals rule. Monaco showed versus Manchester City that they would not sit back and defend in an away first leg and one expects that the Red and Whites will put Dortmund’s rickety rearguard under more duress than it would normally encounter on home turf. That Dortmund has kept just one clean sheet in its 15 German Bundesliga road games ought to provide Monaco with enough encouragement to go for its host’s threat even though the UEFA Champions League match is taking place in Germany.
Betfair are offering odds of -200 about Dortmund and Monaco scoring on Tuesday and one rates that as the best bet on the UEFA Champions League coupon.
The same wager – both teams to score – is available at odds of -154 with 188Bet and Betfair for Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League game between Bayern Munchen and another attack-minded side that will not sit back and defend on its travels, Real Madrid. It rates as another UEFA Champions League bet worth striking.
A 0-1 German Bundesliga loss to Augsburg in May 2015 was the last time that Bayern Munchen did not score a goal in a home match of note so one is banking on the Reds finding a route to goal. Real Madrid has scored in every one of its 52 games since drawing 0-0 at Manchester City in a UEFA Champions League match 12 months ago. Odds of -154 appear somewhat generous given the scoring power of Bayern and Real.
When one thinks of impressive home numbers than Juventus is a team to leaps to mind because the Old Lady have not lost in front of their own supporters since Udinese stunned them 1-0 in an Italian Serie A match in August 2015. Bookmakers are having trouble splitting Juventus and Barcelona for Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League game in Italy but surely the Old Lady are worth a punt at odds of +167 with Marathonbet.
Barcelona lost 0-4 at Paris Saint-Germain in the last UEFA Champions League round and it has managed only five clean sheets in its 15 Spanish Primera Division away matches and one does not rate most of its domestic rivals highly.
Dortmund v Monaco – Both teams to score
Tuesday 11th April, 19:45 BST
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid – Both teams to score
Wednesday 12th April, 19:45 BST
Juventus to beat Barcelona
Tuesday 11th April, 19:45 BST