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Roma’s only realistic shot at overtaking Napoli in the race for Italian Serie A’s silver medal is to go for broke in the match between the third- and second-placed sides on Sunday.
It was one of the statistical quirks of the Italian Serie A competition that December’s game between Napoli and Roma in Naples ended goalless because the Partenopei and the Wolves are the division’s highest scorers. Indeed, both Napoli and Roma have been great friends to punters of over two and a half goals because 40 of their combined 67 Italian Serie A matches have exceeded that line. Incredibly, Marathonbet is offering odds of 17/20 1.85 -118 0.85 -1.18 0.85 that Roma and Napoli combine for over two and a half goals in what promises to be a cracking game.
Digging deeper into the Italian Serie A data and one finds that 10 of Roma’s 17 home matches have gone over two and a half goals and that none of those games featured fewer than two goals. Roma is five points below Napoli on the Italian Serie A ladder so the Wolves have to throw caution to the wind against the only team that has found the back of the net more frequently than them. Furthermore, Napoli will be able to pick Italian Serie A’s top goal scorer, Gonzalo Higuain, now that he has served his lengthy suspension.
If you are looking for an odds-against wager in the Italian Serie A match between Roma and Napoli then you may be keen to know that Betfred and Paddy Power are offering odds of 11/4 3.75 +275 2.75 2.75 -0.36 about the Wolves winning and the game going over two and a half goals. The general match prices are slightly unkind to Roma, which one rates almost as highly as its foe. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Roma trails Napoli 7-4-8 but the Wolves did drew with the Partenopei on the road. All things considered, Roma should be trading at odds of around 6/5 2.20 +120 1.20 1.20 -0.83 for a straightforward Italian Serie A win with any number of goals scored.
Bologna conceded six goals in its Italian Serie A game at Napoli earlier this week, a result that one expects will result in the Greyhounds shutting up shop when they host Genoa on Saturday. Twenty-two of Bologna’s 34 Italian Serie A games have gone under two and a half goals, including 10 of its 17 home matches. No side has featured in more Italian Serie A games that have gone under two and a half goals than Bologna. Twenty-one of Genoa’s 34 Italian Serie A games have gone under two and a half goals, including 12 of its 17 away matches. December’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture resulted in a 1-0 road victory for Bologna and yet Marathonbet is offering odds of 77/100 1.77 -130 0.77 -1.30 0.77 about another clash between the teams that lands under two and a half goals. Snap up that price.
Juventus has failed to win any of its Italian Serie A away games versus fellow top-five sides yet one cannot resist picking the Old Lady at odds of 23/20 2.15 +115 1.15 1.15 -0.87 with BetVictor to defeat one of its traditional rivals, Fiorentina. That is because one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis puts Juventus on top of Fiorentina by a score of 14-2-3 and the teams will go into Sunday’s showdown off very contrasting results. Fiorentina has fallen short against Italian Serie A’s best sides – it is 0-1-5 versus Juventus, Napoli and Roma – so one is going to gamble on Juve being too good.
Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for each of this weekend’s 10 matches. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.
Internazionale 12*-1-6 versus Udinese
Frosinone 8-2-9* versus Palermo
Atalanta 5-5-9* versus Chievo
Bologa 7*-0-12 versus Genoa
Sampdoria 8*3-8 versus Lazio
Torino 8*-3-8 versus Sassuolo
Fiorentina 3-2-14* versus Juventus
Roma 7*-4-8 versus Napoli
Verona 4*-1-14 versus Milan
Carpi 5-4-10* versus Empoli
Roma v Napoli – Over 2.5 Goals
Monday 25th April, 14:00 GMT
Odds: 17/20 1.85 -118 0.85 -1.18 0.85
Bologna v Genoa – Under 2.5 Goals
Sunday 24th April, 14:00 GMT
Odds: 77/100 1.77 -130 0.77 -1.30 0.77
Juventus to beat Fiorentina
Sunday 24th April, 19:45 GMT
Odds: 23/20 2.15 +115 1.15 1.15 -0.87
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