Wolfsburg to inflict Leverkusen’s first home defeat


The match of the German Bundesliga round throws up the best bet of the German Bundesliga round as one is keen to back second-placed Wolfsburg to win at sixth-placed Leverkusen.

In offering Wolfsburg at the best odds of +210 , available with several bookmakers, including Betfred and Totesport, layers have acknowledged that the Wolves are superior to Leverkusen and that they would be favourites if the German Bundesliga game were played at a neutral value.

One is not getting carried away with Wolfsburg’s 4-1 home victory over Leverkusen in the fourth round of the German Bundesliga because the Wolves took the lead from 11 metres after their opponents had been reduced to 10 men for a foul inside the penalty area. One will never know how the German Bundesliga clash would have played out had Giulio Donati’s foul not resulted in him receiving his marching orders so one is not going to read too much into that one scoreline.

What attracts one to Wolfsburg is its odds – one may not get another opportunity to back it at such a price before the German Bundesliga season is over – and the way in which the match sets up. There is no secret to Leverkusen’s strategy, which is press, press, press, attack, attack, attack. Such tactics have the potential to overwhelm opponents but, also, they have the potential to provide openings for sides that are equipped to exploit the inherent weaknesses in them. One thinks that Wolfsburg is exactly the type of team that has the ability to capitalise on Leverkusen’s shortcomings.

The odds about Wolfsburg beating Leverkusen and staying in touch with German Bundesliga ladder Bayern Munchen are too big to pass up. One can almost bank on Wolfsburg scoring a goal – the Wolves have fired just one blank in their last 46 German Bundesliga games and Andre Schurrle’s arrival has strengthened its attacking options – and Leverkusen has not scored more than one goal in any of its last seven league matches. Furthermore, Leverkusen may be unbeaten in its 10 German Bundesliga home games but it has won only four of them, drawing with several extremely ordinary outfits.

Round 21 is one of those German Bundesliga rounds in which not a great deal leaps off the coupon. Once again, Dortmund is trading at ridiculously short odds for a side that is in the German Bundesliga relegation zone. One was not stunned that Dortmund won 3-0 at Freiburg last weekend but BVB did not represent any value whatsoever and, arguably, it could find its German Bundesliga life tougher at home given the weight of expectation coming down from the terraces. One thinks that Dortmund could maul Mainz if it grabs an early lead and plays with the freedom that holding an advantage provides. But the longer that Dortmund does not lead Mainz, the more nervous its players, coaches and supporters will get and do not forget that the reverse German Bundesliga fixture resulted in a 2-0 away defeat of BVB. Regarding Bayern Munchen, it did not beat Hamburg on the road in the German Bundesliga fourth round so one is reluctant to take incredibly short odds about FC Hollywood defeating HSV at the Allianz Arena. There will be better times to get stuck into Bayern Munchen at odds of around the -1000  mark.

In terms of German Bundesliga exotics, the pick of the plays is Leverkusen to have more cards points than Wolfsburg in the match of the round. Leverkusen’s German Bundesliga cards points average of 26.25 is the division’s second highest, whereas Wolfsburg’s mean of 13.25 is the third lowest in the section. Even the German Bundesliga home and away cards points averages of Leverkusen (23.50) and Wolfsburg (12.78) support backing the host to be naughtier than its guest provided that bookmakers do not chalk up short odds.

Tips Summary

Wolfsburg to beat Leverkusen
14th February 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +210
Where to Bet: Betfred, Totesport

Also look at Leverksuen to score more in the card index in the above game.

Allianz Arena
Andre Schurrle

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