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All matches in the penultimate German Bundesliga round will take place simultaneously on Sunday and the best bet on what one rates as a tricky card is over two and a half goals in the game between Wolfsburg and Dortmund in the motor city.
Twenty of Wolfsburg’s 32 German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals, including 11 of its 16 home games in what has been a hugely entertaining season for fans of the Wolves. Half of Dortmund’s 32 German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals, including 10 of its 16 away games – only the road matches of Frankfurt and Bremen have been more frequently action packed than those of BVB.
Wolfsburg has qualified for the UEFA Champions League but it needs to win its last two German Bundesliga games to ensure that it bypasses the preliminary round and goes straight into the group stage. So one is expecting Wolfsburg, which has taken a little while to get over its UEFA Europa League disappointment, to be 100 per cent committed versus Dortmund and it is common knowledge that the Wolves are at their best attacking because defending is not their strong suit.
Dortmund has not one but two avenues into the UEFA Europa League having qualified for the German DFB Pokal final against Wolfsburg and positioned itself in seventh place on the German Bundesliga ladder after being bottom but one when the competition broke up for Christmas following 17 rounds. Therefore, one expects Dortmund to play with a degree of freedom on Saturday and one likes the fact that December’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture resulted in a 2-2 draw.
Several bookmakers, including Boylesports and Bwin, are offering odds of -167 that the German Bundesliga match between Wolfsburg and Dortmund goes over two and a half goals. For the record, each of the last eight German Bundesliga meetings of the teams has gone over two and a half goals and the Volkswagen Arena run is seven league clashes. So history is on one’s suggested bet’s side.
The German Bundesliga coupon gets trickier after that, with one rating the second best play as Stuttgart to beat Hamburg in Saturday’s relegation six-pointer, an option that is trading at odds of -133 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.
A loss for Stuttgart could see it relegated from the German Bundesliga and miss out of top-flight action for just the third season ever. But Stuttgart ought to be buoyed by its German Bundesliga fixture list – its last game is away to 17th-placed Paderborn – and its head-to-head record versus Hamburg having won December’s reverse fixture 1-0 despite playing most of the second half with one player fewer than the Red Shorts. Also, Stuttgart has scored in each of its last seven German Bundesliga matches, hitting the back of the net at least twice in five of them, including all four on its home patch. Hamburg is the German Bundesliga’s lowest scoring away side having hit only eight goals on the road.
Finally, it is hard to let Augsburg go unbacked at odds of +130 with Bet365 to win its German Bundesliga game against Hannover on Saturday. Hannover defeated Augsburg 2-0 in the reverse German Bundesliga fixture five months ago but the 96ers were a very different team before Christmas and the facts are that they have not won a subsequent divisional match, accruing just eight points from its last 16 games, not helped by failing to keep a single clean sheet.
Objectively, there is no way in the world that Augsburg should be available at odds of +130 to get the better of Hannover. Any odds longer than +110 are over the top.
Augsburg to beat Hannover
16th May 14:30 GMT
Where to Bet: Bet365
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