West Ham has usurped Southampton as the surprise package of the English Premier League season and it rates as the best bet in the 17th round of matches because Paddy Power is offering odds of -143 that the Hammers beat Leicester.
Supporters of West Ham should enjoy their team occupying one of the UEFA Champions League qualification berth while its last because the Hammers have played just one of the top nine away from the Boleyn Ground so, therefore, one expects that they will slide down the English Premier League ladder after Christmas. But that West Ham is not fighting its usual relegation fight, unlike Leicester, which is three points adrift at the foot of the ladder and in deep trouble. We previously tipped Leicester to finish bottom of the league at +2000 , and they are now +250 so hopefully our followers are on that one too.
Leicester has lost each of its last four English Premier League games and it has accrued only two points from a possible 33 since coming back from 1-3 down to defeat Manchester United 5-3 at King Power Stadium. Moreover, Leicester is behind West Ham when it comes to English Premier League collateral form lines after 16 rounds.
West Ham and Leicester have had 14 common English Premier League opponents and one’s view is that nine of those collateral form lines favour the Hammers, three of them favour the Foxes and two of them favour neither team.
One’s English Premier League collateral form line analysis supports the ladder that sees West Ham 16 positions and 18 points above cellar dweller Leicester and, therefore, the Hammers are the most attractive play on the program.
Usually one shies away from betting on derbies but one is willing to make an exception for the Tyne-Wear argument between Newcastle and Sunderland at St James’ Park, not least because of one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis that favours the Magpies strongly.
Newcastle and Sunderland have had 14 common English Premier League opponents and one’s view is that seven of those collateral form lines favour the Magpies, two of them favour the Black Cats and five of them favour neither side. With Newcastle enjoying a significant home advantage in what is, arguably, its biggest home match of the English Premier League season, the Magpies should be trading at shorter odds than the -105 that Bet365 and Bwin are offering to punters.
Head-to-head followers will shy away from Newcastle – it has lost each of its last three English Premier League derbies versus Sunderland and the Magpies have not beaten the Black Cats at St James’ Park since November 2010 – this season’s statistics are more meaningful and, if it was not such a high-profile fixture, surely the home team would be shorter odds than the ones that are available with some bookmakers.
One is willing to argue that English Premier League leader Chelsea is over the odds at -149 with Sky Bet to get three points from its game against Stoke at the Britannia Stadium.
A couple of things attract one to Chelsea. First, Stoke has looked better suited to playing away from the Britannia Stadium than at its Potteries base. And second, one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis skews heavily towards table-topping Chelsea. Stoke and Chelsea have had 14 common English Premier League opponents and one’s view is that 11 of those collateral form lines favour the Blues, two of them favour the Potters and one of them favours neither side. One think that Chelsea is worth backing at odds all the way down to the -200 mark.
Finally, the stand-out English Premier League exotic option is Arsenal to take more corner kicks than Liverpool in their marquee match at Anfield. In the first 16 English Premier League rounds, Arsenal has taken an average of 7.94 corner kicks and conceded an average of 3.63 corner kicks, while Liverpool’s corner-kick means have been 5.25 and 5.38 respectively. Bookmakers are slow to frame such markets but one expects that Arsenal may be offered as the underdog.
West Ham to beat Leicester
20th December 15:00 GMT
Where to Bet: Paddy Power
Chelsea to beat Stoke
22nd December 20:00 GMT
Where to Bet: Sky Bet
Arsenal more corners than Liverpool
21st December 16:00 GMT
Where to Bet: TBC
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