Villarreal’s Yellow Submarine to sink Bilbao


Villarreal represents the best bet on the Spanish Primera Division coupon for the 19th round of matches, with Coral listing the Yellow Submarine at odds of 1.73 to get three points from its game versus Bilbao at El Madrigal.

One’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis supports the ladder that has Villarreal in sixth position, seven places and 13 points ahead of Bilbao as the league approaches its midway point. Villarreal and Bilbao have had 18 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and one’s view is that 12 of those collateral form lines favour the Yellow Submarine, three favour their rival and three favour neither team. Factor in the respective Spanish Primera Division runs of Villarreal and Bilbao – the former has won five and drawn three of its last eight matches, whereas the latter has lost four and drawn one of its last five games – and the case for backing the Yellow Submarine at odds of -137  is rock solid.

The only positive for Bilbao is that its Spanish Copa del Rey match against Celta should be easier on it than the game facing Villarreal versus Sociedad because of the state of the respective ties. But one still likes Villarreal to beat Bilbao and continue its push for a UEFA competition berth.

Almeria came from behind to stun Valencia at the Mestalla in the Spanish Primera Division last season but one thinks that there will not be a shock when the sides meet on Saturday.

Valencia has accrued 11 points from its last five Spanish Primera Division matches – including a 2-1 home defeat of Real Madrid – and it enjoys a significant collateral form edge over Almeria. Valencia and Almeria have played every Spanish Primera Division team except each other and one’s view is that 11 of those collateral form lines favour the home side, four favour the away side and three favour neither side. Those statistics supports the Spanish Primera Division ladder that ranks Valencia fifth and Almeria 16th.

Both Valencia and Almeria have Spanish Copa del Rey games in midweek but the former will have one more day to prepare for their Spanish Primera Division clash and that, combined with home advantage and one’s collateral form analysis, suggests that the favourite is attractively priced at odds of -303  with Coral to continue its fine recent run.

One must acknowledge that Almeria’s Spanish Primera Division away record is the best of the teams ranked on the bottom half of the ladder but it has not beaten a top-six side on its travels and, therefore, one is going with Valencia.

Derbies are not usually one’s cup of tea when its comes to betting but several bookmakers, including Bwin and WilliamHill, are offering odds of -400  that Real Madrid gets the better of Getafe in the Spanish Primera Division encounter between the capital’s biggest and smallest names.

One’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis puts Real Madrid at a 15-1-1 advantage over Getafe based on their 17 common foes and no other team boasts a bigger edge than that in this round. Put it this way: one would rather back Real Madrid to win at Getafe than Barcelona to win at Deportivo and the Meringues are trading at longer odds.

Finally, with regards to Spanish Primera Division exotic bets, keep out an eye for odds about Celta having more corner kicks than Espanyol on Saturday. One is hoping that the odds reflect the closeness of the Spanish Primera Division match rather than the respective corner-kick numbers of the sides. Celta boasts the best corner-kick ratio in the Spanish Primera Division, averaging 7.89 for and 3.56 against. Espanyol’s corner-kick ratio is the 12th best in the Spanish Primera Division, with the Parakeets averaging 5.17 for and 5.22 against. Even Celta is sliding down the Spanish Primera Division ladder, it is managing to maintain its remarkable performances regarding corner kicks.

Also, depending on the referee appointment for the Spanish Primera Division game between Rayo Vallecano and Sociedad, it could be worth backing the former to receive more cards points than the latter. Rayo Vallecano and Sociedad are poles apart on the Spanish Primera Division disciplinary ladder so one is hoping for a referee who has a record of not being unduly harsh on the actions of away teams.

Tips Summary

Villarreal to beat Bilbao
17th January 19:00 GMT
Odds:  -137
Where to Bet: Coral

Valencia to beat Almeria
17th January 17:00 GMT
Odds:  -303
Where to Bet: Coral

Real Madrid to beat Getafe
18th January 11:00 GMT
Odds:  -400
Where to Bet: Bwin, WilliamHill

Copa del Rey
Real Madrid
Spanish Primera
Yellow Submarine

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