Villarreal to Build upon Its Season-Best Performance

Villarreal vs Valladolid

The Yellow Submarine deservedly sank Athletic in the midweek Spanish Primera Division round and they are the best bets of the weekend program when they resurface to face Valladolid.

Villarreal served up its finest performance of the Spanish Primera Division season on Wednesday and, while it took 65 minutes to break the deadlock and two of its three goals occurred beyond the 80th minute, expected goals data says the Yellow Submarine were good value for their 3-0 away defeat of an Athletic team that had not lost previously.

Valladolid will be backing up from its Spanish Primera Division midweek assignment with one day fewer to recover than Valencia. Valladolid registered its first Spanish Primera Division since rejoining the top flight when it defeated Levante 2-1 but the White and Violets did not get on top of the Frogs until after Nikola Vukcevic received a red card in the 54th minute and, according to expected goals data, a 1-1 draw would have been a much fairer result.

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Villarreal is ninth on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but, according to expected points data, it should be one rung higher and one point better off. The same goes for Valladolid – 13th on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but value for one position and one point more – but one thinks Villarreal will contend for UEFA Europa League qualification whereas the White and Purples will struggle to avoid the Spanish Primera Division drop unless their recent scoring streak continues, which is unlikely given their roster.

There is little in the way of Spanish Primera Division head-to-head history between Villarreal and Valladolid but the Yellow Submarine won their last league clash at the Ceramica 2-1 in August 2013. That goes to show how long Valladolid spent languishing on Spain’s second level. Back Villarreal at odds of -175   with 888Sport.

Both sides have hit the back of the net in each of the last six Spanish Primera Division games between Sociedad and Valencia and a wager on that eventuality occurring again seems like a good way to tackle Saturday’s match in San Sebastian between two of the top flight’s stalwarts.

Perhaps somewhat fortunately, Sociedad has scored in each of its six Spanish Primera Division games this term because La Real are outperforming both expected goals and expected points data. But Sociedad is at home to Valencia so it should be capable of getting on to the scoresheet, not least because it will have one day extra to recover from its midweek exertions than the travelling Bats team.

According to expected points data, Valencia has been the unluckiest Spanish Primera Division side this season and that is chiefly because the Bats have scored only half of the goals they should have netted on their build-up play. The tide will turn for Valencia eventually because too many of its Spanish Primera Division statistics are too good for the Bats to continue slumming it near the foot of the ladder and one is hoping they will become the sixth side in seven league rounds to puncture Sociedad’s defence at least once.

One is picking both teams to score at  -143   with Bet365 but it is well worth noting there has been over two and a half goals in each of Sociedad’s last 13 Spanish Primera Division home matches.

Levante has lost three Spanish Primera Division games in a row but one thinks that the Frogs may be overpriced at -182   with BetVictor to get back on track with a home win over Alaves on Sunday.

This suggestion is based on the Spanish Primera Division expected points ladder rather than the real one. According to expected points, Levante deserves to be in the Spanish Primera Division bottom four but, whereas Alaves is fourth on the real ladder, the Babazorros are 16th on for the want of a better term is the merit ladder. Basically, expected points data suggests there is little to choose between Levante and Alaves and, therefore, one thinks bookmakers have framed their markets incorrectly on their encounter.

Tips Summary

Villarreal to beat Valladolid
Sunday 30th September, 15:15 BST
Odds: -175

Both teams to score in Sociedad versus Valencia
Saturday 29th September, 12:00 BST
Odds: -143

Levante to beat Alaves – draw no bet
Sunday 30th September, 17:30 BST
Odds: -182

La Liga
Spanish Primera Division

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