One does not believe that Parma has turned the corner even though it is off the foot of the Italian Serie A ladder at long last and, therefore, Verona represents the best bet on the coupon for the 18th round of championship matches.
Parma beat Fiorentina 1-0 at home on Tuesday to climb above Cesena on the Italian Serie A ladder but it experienced some luck along the way. Fiorentina wasted a host of goal-scoring opportunities, none better than the 34th-minute penalty kick that Mario Gomez missed, and Vincenzo Montella’s frustrating day in the dugout seeing two of his team’s defenders sent off late on. Everything fell into place and yet still Parma struggled to get the job done, with neutral viewers thinking that Fiorentina should have picked up at least one point.
Verona ended 2014 with a 0-1 Italian Serie A home derby loss to Chievo but generally one is willing to put a line through the results of local arguments. Verona resumed its Italian Serie A campaign with a 0-0 draw at Empoli in which it was on the back foot for long spells so one is not going over the top about Andrea Mandorlini’s side. However, Verona’s Italian Serie A collateral form edge over Parma is too substantial to ignore, hence why one is interested in the 15th-placed team defeating the 19th-placed team at the healthy odds of +140 with 888Sport, BetVictor and Unibet.
Seventeen rounds into the Italian Serie A season and Verona and Parma have had 16 common opponents, with one’s view that 10 of those collateral form lines favour Mandorlini’s side, five favour Roberto Donadoni’s side and one favours neither side. Verona’s collateral form edge over Parma is the second best of any team competing in an Italian Serie A game this weekend, with just Sampdoria boasting superior statistics.
Which brings one to Sampdoria, which is trading at odds of -115 with BetVictor to get the better of Empoli at home, odds that are perfectly acceptable when one considers how the two sides match up based on their respective results.
Sampdoria and Empoli have faced 16 of the same Italian Serie A teams and one’s view is that 10 of those collateral form lines favour the former, three favour the latter and three favour neither side. Factor in that Sampdoria is undefeated at home across all competitions this term – six wins, three draws and no losses – and Empoli’s away numbers feature just one win – 2-0 at Parma – and odds of -115 are appealing.
Seven places and nine points separate Sampdoria and Empoli on the Italian Serie A ladder and, if anything, the gap is greater based on one’s collateral form analysis. Certainly Sampdoria should be shorter than odds of -115 for the win.
One is struggling to choose between Genoa plus one goal versus Internazionale and Napoli plus one goal against Juventus for one’s third Italian Serie A pick so why not nominate both. One’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis favours Genoa 7-2-6 over Internazionale and Juventus 8-1-7 over Napoli so one is convinced that both outsiders represent excellent value bets not to lose their weekend games. Genoa plus one goal is available at odds of +138 with BetVictor, whereas Napoli plus one goal is available at odds of 1.55 with Bet365.
Finally, while Italian Serie A staff have yet to appoint the referee for the match between Internazionale and Genoa, keep out an eye for cards markets on the game. One would be very keen on backing Genoa to accrue more cards points – 10 per yellow card and 25 per red card – than Internazionale. Genoa is averaging 33.13 cards points in Italian Serie A, whereas well behaved Internazionale’s cards points mean is 20.32.
Sampdoria to beat Empoli
11th January 14:00 GMT
Where to Bet: BetVictor
Genoa +1 goal to beat Inter Milan
11th January 11:30 GMT
Where to Bet: BetVictor
Napoli +1 goal to beat Juventus
11th January 19:45 GMT
Where to Bet: Bet365
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