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Bookmakers are having difficulty picking a favourite on the two-and-a-half-goals line for Sunday’s Italian Serie A game between Verona and Sassuolo so here is some help – the case for over is considerably stronger than the case for under.
Both Verona and Sassuolo are batting at better than 50% in Italian Serie A when it comes to over two and a half goals. Eighteen of Verona’s 31 Italian Serie A matches have gone over two and a half goals, which places it joint third on the list alongside Palermo and behind only Cagliari and Lazio. And 16 of Sassuolo’s 31 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals to rank it equal fifth.
Drill a little bit deeper and the case for over two and a half goals gets even stronger. Nine of Verona’s 15 Italian Serie A home matches have gone over two and a half goals, while 10 of Sassuolo’s 16 top-flight away games have gone over that line, which is the league’s best road ratio.
There are seven Italian Serie A rounds remaining but there is a dead-rubber feel to Sunday’s match because Verona and Sassulo are level on 36 points, 13 clear of the relegation zone and even further away from the UEFA Europa League spots. Consequently, Verona and Sassuolo should be able to play with freedom and with that should come attacking football and many chances at both ends of the pitch.
Both Betfred and WilliamHill are offering odds of 91/100 1.91 -110 0.91 -1.10 0.91 that Verona and Sassuolo combine to go over two and a half goals, odds that are sufficiently big to make the bet stand out as the most sensible way to punt on the weekend’s Italian Serie A action. Sassuolo beat Verona 2-1 when the teams met in the 13th round of the Italian Serie A competition in November.
Most of the recent Italian Serie A derbies between Torino and Juventus have been relatively low-scoring affairs and one is keen to bet on Sunday’s local argument going under two and a half goals at odds of 31/50 1.62 -161 0.62 -1.61 0.62 with many bookmakers including BetVictor and Ladbrokes.
Only two of the last 10 Italian Serie A derbies between Torino and Juventus have gone over two and a half goals, with both of the exceptions to the rule being nominal Juve home games that featured three goals. And it is not just the fixture’s recent history that supports one suggested wager.
Nineteen of Torino’s 31 Italian Serie A matches have gone under two and a half goals and Juventus boasts identical numbers. Analyse the home and away data and one’s enthusiasm rises again – 12 of Torino’s 15 league home games have gone under two and a half goals and 10 of the 15 top-flight away matches that Juventus has played have gone under the line.
Finally, Genoa thrashed Cesena 3-0 on the road in November and Gian Piero Gasperini’s side rates as the most appealing conventional bet on the Italian Serie A card at odds of 67/100 1.67 -149 0.67 -1.49 0.67 with SkyBet to do the double over Domenico Di Carlo’s team.
One is spewing that Cesena did not succumb to Sampdoria in Italian Serie A’s last round but that is football sometimes – on the balance of play, Samp should have won by two or three goals. Sampdoria missed a truckload of chances and Cesena goalkeeper Federico Agliardi had a blinder. Cesena return to the scene of its crime seven days on from its act of daylight robbery and one is betting against a repeat.
Genoa to beat Cesena
26th April 14:00 GMT
Odds: 67/100 1.67 -149 0.67 -1.49 0.67
Where to Bet: SkyBet