Vallecano to Experience Another Disastrous Derby


Vallecano’s last derby resulted in a 2-10 hammering and one is picking Rayo to be on the wrong end of another local argument when Atletico Madrid visits on Wednesday.

Atletico Madrid is second on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but the Mattressers have won by more than two goals only once so the chance of them subjecting Vallecano to a second successive smashing is not high. However, one likes the chance of Atletico collecting three points and climbing above Barcelona, albeit probably only for a few hours. Collateral form analysis is central to one’s selection of Atletico to get the better of Vallecano.

Vallecano and Atletico Madrid have had 15 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and the Mattressers have the second strongest collateral form figures of the round because they hold a 11-2-2 advantage over 18th-placed Rayo – for the record, third-placed Real Madrid leads the way because it has an 11-0-4 edge over 14th-placed Sociedad.

One could make a case that Atletico Madrid, which is the Spanish Primera Division’s most workmanlike team, should be trading at odds of around -200 to win at Vallecano so one is more than happy to put up the Mattressers at odds of -154 with Marathonbet. Remember, it is not just that Vallecano lost 2-10 at Real Madrid last time out – Rayo had two regular starters sent off at the Santiago Bernabeu so they are unable to line up against Atletico. Down on confidence and numbers, Vallecano is an easy side to oppose versus a very well coached Atletico team that does not beat itself.

Handicap bets are the other Spanish Primera Division wagers on which one is keen in the 17th round of matches, with Deportivo and Espanyol attractive in receipt of starts.

One’s collateral form analysis supports the big gap between 15th-placed Getafe and sixth-placed Deportivo on the Spanish Primera Division ladder, with the latter good value for its 10-point lead over the former. Getafe and Deportivo have had 14 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and one’s collateral form analysis favours Depor 9-2-3. Deportivo is unbeaten in its last seven Spanish Primera Division games, including a 2-2 draw at Barcelona that one found extremely frustrating – one’s collateral form analysis suggested that Depor were not out of their depth against Barca but one picked Barca to win by one goal rather take the safer betting option of Depor with a two-goal handicap start.

Boylesports are offering odds of -182 that Getafe proves incapable of defeating Deportivo on Wednesday. Both bookmakers are betting on the Spanish Primera Division game as though there is not a huge difference between Getafe and Deportivo but both the Spanish Primera Division ladder and one’s collateral form analysis suggests that there is.

Espanyol is a big outsider for its Spanish Primera Division match at Sevilla on Wednesday and, quite simply, one cannot understand how bookmakers have come up with their odds. The Spanish Primera Division ladder sees Sevilla in eighth place and Espanyol just three points behind its midweek opponent in 11th position. Sevilla and Espanyol have had 14 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the former enjoys a 7-1-6 edge over the latter. One thinks that Sevilla is entitled to be odds on to post a Spanish Primera Division home win over Espanyol but best odds of -227 with Marathonbet are far too short – odds of lower than -125 are totally unacceptable.

Coral are allowing punters to back Espanyol with a two-goal handicap start at Sevilla, and odds of -137 completes one’s midweek selections. Sevilla and Espanyol clashed four times across various competitions last season and one’s suggested handicap bet would have paid dividends in each of those four games.

Tips Summary

Atletico Madrid to beat Rayo Vallecano
30th December 17:15 GMT
Odds: -154

Deportivo +1 to beat Getafe
30th December 19:30 GMT
Odds: -182

Espanyol +2 to beat Sevilla
30th December 17:15 GMT
Odds: -137

Atletico Madrid
Rayo Vallecano
Spanish Primera Division

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