Upwardly mobile Fiorentina to win at Parma

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Only leaders Juventus finished the year in better Italian Serie A form than Fiorentina and one thinks that Vincenzo Montella’s team can continue its climb up the ladder by beating bottom-of-the-table Parma on its travels.

Fiorentina accrued 11 points from its last six Italian Serie A matches before the competition took a break for Christmas, including drawing 0-0 with Juventus in Florence. Fiorentina has Italian Serie A’s third-best away record behind those of Juventus and Genoa and one’s collateral form analysis points to a fifth road victory for Montella’s improving side.

Parma and Fiorentina have had 14 common Italian Serie A foes and one’s view is that 11 of those collateral form lines favour the Purples, one favours the Yellow and Blues and two favour neither team. One’s collateral form analysis suggests that the Italian Serie A ladder is a fair reflection of the ability of the sides, with Fiorentina 12 places and 18 points ahead of Parma after 16 rounds of the season.

Fiorentina is available at odds of +100  with BetVictorSkyBet and WilliamHill, which strikes one as good value about an in-form team – ignore that the Purples lost 1-2 at home to Dinamo Minsk in the UEFA Europa League because they had qualified for the knockout stage before that game kicked off – winning at an out-of-form side with a 2-1-13 Italian Serie A record that cannot afford to play conservatively at home.

Bookmakers do not list Juventus at half-decent odds for most of its Italian Serie A home matches but Juve is attractively priced at odds of -189  with BoylesSports to get the better of Internazionale in Turin. Juventus has won 32 and drawn three of its last 35 Italian Serie A home games, a statistic that is well worth highlighting since odds of -189  equate to a 65.36 per cent chance of that option eventuating.

Roberto Mancini’s second stint in charge of Internazionale has started with two wins, three draws and two losses across all competitions, with most of Inter’s seven performances being below the standard expected of the San Siro team. All bar Europe’s strongest sides have struggled against Juventus in Turin and Internazionale, deservedly 11th on the Italian Serie A ladder, are not among the cream of the continent.

Juventus and Internazionale have had 14 common Italian Serie A opponents and one’s view is that 10 of those collateral form lines favour Juve, three favour Inter and one favours neither side. Any Italian Serie A team that loses 0-2 at Parma must be opposed at Juventus given the current odds.

Appealing Italian Serie A match bets are thin on the ground as the tournament resumes so one’s third pick is Lazio to have more corner kicks than Sampdoria even though bookmakers will not post their exotic markets until later this week.

No team has conceded fewer Italian Serie A corner kicks than Lazio, which has defended just 54 corner kicks in its 16 league games. Lazio has attacked 86 corner kicks so its ratio is superior to every Italian Serie A side except Juventus and Napoli. Sampdoria has attacked 84 corner kicks and defended 91 corner kicks in its 16 Italian Serie A matches, meaning that it is 12th on the ratio ladder.

Tips Summary

Fiorentina to beat Parma
6th January 14:00 GMT
Odds:  +100
Where to Bet: BetVictorSkyBetWilliamHill

Juventus to beat Inter
6th January 20:00 GMT
Odds:  -189
Where to Bet: BoylesSports

Lazio to have more corners than Sampdoria
5th January 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -111
Where to Bet: SkyBet

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