Three of the top four sides represent the best value in the German Bundesliga’s last round before its winter break and the odd team out is the defending champion, Bayern Munchen.
Punters who do not shy away from buying money at short odds will include Bayern Munchen in their accumulators but, while one expects the German Bundesliga leader to win at Hannover and end the first half of the season on 46 points, one does not want to step into the raging hot favourite when there are superior bets available on the nine-match program.
With regards to value for money, one rates Hertha as the best wager on the German Bundesliga card because Marathonbet are offering the most attracive odds of +120 about it defeating Mainz on Sunday.
Hertha is third on the German Bundesliga ladder and the collateral form analysis, which is our tried and trusted method of identifying decent bets at this stage in league competitions, suggests that it is much better than Mainz even though just four rungs and five points separate the relatively unfashionable sides. One believes that home advantage is worth half a goal at the German Bundesliga level of football and, using that number to produce 16 collateral form lines, one finds that nine favour Hertha, three favour Mainz and four fail to favour either team. Hertha will host Mainz in Sunday’s German Bundesliga game so, if one awards half a goal to Pal Dardai’s side, the collateral form ledger becomes 13-3 to the Old Lady. Odds of +120 are what one would expect to see quoted about a home team versus an equally talented away side. One cannot have Mainz on a par with Hertha so the host is the wager. Hertha beat Mainz 2-0 on the road when the teams met most recently.
There are statistics that support Stuttgart being unlucky to be bottom of the German Bundesliga ladder – for example, it is ranked sixth for attempts on target – but there are just as many items of negative information that are difficult to ignore. Stuttgart will entertain fourth-placed Wolfsburg on Saturday and one likes the Wolves at odds-against prices.
Stuttgart and Wolfsburg have had 16 common German Bundesliga opponents and one’s collateral form analysis has come up with two lines favouring the Reds, 10 lines favouring the Wolves and four ties. Even moving the ties to Stuttgart’s side of the ledger because it is Saturday’s home team does not make a huge difference, with Wolfsburg still leading 10-6. The German Bundesliga ladder is not lying about the gap in ability between Stuttgart and Wolfsburg, making odds of +120 with Totesport about a Wolves win stand out. Wolfsburg has won each of its last six matches against Stuttgart, including 3-1 and 4-0 victories in last season’s German Bundesliga games. Stuttgart’s defence is not up to German Bundesliga standard – 36 goals conceded in 16 matches.
Finally, Dortmund ought to round out 2015 with a German Bundesliga win at Koln on Saturday. Second-placed Dortmund and 10th-placed Koln have had 16 common German Bundesliga opponents and one’s collateral form analysis has 11 lines favouring BVB, three favouring the Billy Goats and two ties. Once again, it’s Marathonbet that is offering odds of -204 about Dortmund, which holds a 11-5 German Bundesliga collateral form edge over Koln even after acknowledging that the Billy Goats will host Saturday’s game, and one thinks that price is too big.
The German Bundesliga favourite about which to be most wary is Schalke because, according to one’s collateral form analysis, there is little to choose between the Royal Blues and Hoffenheim. Schalke is well above Hoffenheim on the German Bundesliga ladder but one expects that the gap between the sides will narrow after the New Year. For the record, Schalke and Hoffenheim have had 16 common German Bundesliga opponents and one’s collateral form analysis could not split them on seven wins apiece and two ties.
Hertha to beat Mainz
20th December 14:30 GMT
Wolfsburg to beat Stuttgart
19th December 17:30 GMT
Dortmund to beat Koln
19th December 14:30 GMT
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