Udinese and the Old Lady won’t be a thriller

A bet on under two and a half goals in the match between Udinese and Juventus is the best way to have a punt on a very tough weekend program of Italian Serie A games.

One had to go all the way to the last match of the round before hitting upon an attractive betting opportunity but, as the saying goes, good things come to those who wait.

Bwin is offering odds of 1.87 that Udinese and Juventus go under two and a half goals, something that they accomplished in the reverse Italian Serie A fixture four months ago. The game was heading for a goalless draw until Fernando Llorente popped up in stoppage time to secure a 1-0 win for Juventus.

Udinese is an under two-and-a-half goals team. Udinese’s 32 Italian Serie A matches have averaged 2.47 goals, 17 of them have gone under two and a half goals and another nine have just gone over the line. Usually one does not associate a runaway league leader with under two and a half goals but half of Juventus’s 32 Italian Serie A games have gone under the line and, in terms of goals, Juve’s matches have only the seventh highest average. That is remarkable given the dominance of Juventus on the Italian Serie A ladder.

Dig into the Italian Serie A home numbers of Udinese and the Italian Serie A away numbers of Juventus and backing under two and a half goals in their Monday game gets even more appetising. Ten of Udinese’s 15 Italian Serie A home matches have gone under two and a half goals, including the last four in a row. And 11 of Juventus’s 16 Italian Serie A away games have gone under two and a half goals, including the last four in a row. Pretty much every statistic that one could care to mention supports the suggested bet and the odds of 1.87 do not correspond with the data, either.

One has not been a fan of Milan this term – no-one except Internazionale supporters have – but the Rossoneri are hard to overlook at odds of 1.40 with Ladbrokes for their Italian Serie A home match versus bottom-of-the-ladder Catania.

Not only has Milan won its last three Italian Serie A games but also it won the reverse league fixture 3-1. Catania was down 1-2 before Panagiotis Tachtsidis received his marching orders so Milan won the December match fair and square.

Catania has been hopeless away from home in Italian Serie A this season, accruing only two points from a possible 48 and amassing a goal difference of minus 28. Admittedly, Catania has managed to force draws against two of the Italian Serie A top six – Internazionale and Parma – but it has lost on the road to significantly worse teams than Milan.

Finally, the Italian Serie A relegation six-pointer between Livorno and Chievo is one of those matches in which it is a thankless task to construct a case for backing either side so there is good value in the draw at odds of 3.20 with several bookmakers, including 888sport and Youwin.

Livorno has won only one of its last eight Italian Serie A games and, consequently, it is difficult to recommend a bet on it beating a Chievo team that won the reverse league fixture 3-0 four months ago. Livorno could do with three Italian Serie A points but it is too short to get them.

Chievo boasts that head-to-head success over Livorno but its away record is terrible. Chievo’s 16 Italian Serie A road matches have produced two wins, four draws and 10 losses, including five consecutive defeats since early February.

Bookmakers know that punters prefer to back home wins and away wins over draws so sometimes one point apiece trades at odds that somewhat generous. This is one of those times.