Napoli leads Italian Serie A after 21 rounds but it is the three teams breathing down its neck – Juventus, Fiorentina and Internazionale – on which punters should concentrate when looking for value bets in this weekend’s games.
The Italian Serie A title race is interesting this season because Juventus bombed the start, earning just five points from its first six matches. But Juventus has rebounded in true Juventus style, registering 11 Italian Serie A wins on the spin to pull within two points of Napoli at the summit with a home game versus the leader scheduled for next month.
Eleven consecutive Italian Serie A victories means that it is a no-brainer for Juventus to be odds on to triumph at 10th-placed Chievo on Sunday but one thinks that bookmakers have not gone sufficiently far to make betting on Juve unattractive. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Juventus enjoys a 14-2-3 lead over Chievo and that is in spite of Juve being below par in its 1-1 home draw against the Yellow and Blues in September. When one looks only at the Italian Serie A matches featuring the division’s top teams, the results of Juventus have been considerably better than those of Chievo and, therefore, Juve heads up one’s list at odds of -149 with Coral.
Fiorentina justified one’s Italian Serie A headline pick last weekend and one is sticking with the Purples for their game at Genoa on Sunday. Fiorentina beat Genoa 1-0 in Round Three of Italian Serie A even though it played the last half hour with one player fewer than its guest thanks to Milan Badelj’s sending off. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Fiorentina boasts a 12-4-3 edge over Genoa, numbers that more than support the ladder that sees the Purples 13 rungs and 18 points in front of their opponents. Fiorentina’s Italian Serie A championship push has gone awry over the last six weeks because the Purples have lost three of their most recent half a dozen league matches but they did not lose to any mugs – Juventus, Lazio and Milan were the sides that did the damage. William Hill are offering odds of +145 about Fiorentina defeating Genoa, odds that appear somewhat generous given the substantial difference in ability between the two teams.
Betting on derbies is not one’s favourite course of action but one cannot allow Internazionale to go around at decent odds not to lose its local argument with Milan on Sunday.
Only two places separate Internazionale and Milan on the Italian Serie A ladder but one’s collateral form analysis suggests that the Black and Blues are quite a bit better than the Red and Blacks – the former boasts a 10-4-5 advantage over the latter, including 1-0 wins in both the reverse fixture and an October friendly. Even if one says that Milan is the home team and warrants something of a spoil there is no way that one can have the Red and Blacks as hot favourites over Internazionale. BetVictor is listing Internazionale at odds of +212 to complete an Italian Serie A double over its fiercest rival but one favours the idea of backing the Black and Blues at -169 with 888Sport and Unibet not to lose. Internazionale’s defensive record is the best in Italian Serie A having conceded a paltry 14 goals.
Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 22’s 10 games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Carpi 8*-4-7 versus Palermo
Atalanta 7*-2-10 versus Sassuolo
Roma 13*-1-5 versus Frosinone
Chievo 3*-2-14 versus Juventus
Napoli 11*-3-5 versus Empoli
Genoa 3-4-12* versus Fiorentina
Torino 11*-1-7 versus Verona
Udinese 7-3-9* versus Lazio
Bologna 7-4-8* versus Sampdoria
Milan 5-4-10* versus Internazionale
Juventus to beat Chievo
31st January 11:30 GMT
Fiorentina to beat Genoa
31st January 14:00 GMT
Internazionale to win/draw v Milan
31st January 19:45 GMT
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