Travel-Sick Getafe No Match for Celta in Vigo

Celta 4-1 Barcelona

Celta kicks off the Spanish Primera Division seventh round and one expects it to return to the top of the ladder, at least temporarily, by beating Getafe at home on Friday.

Frustratingly, Celta did not kick on from its brilliant 4-1 home win over Barcelona, requiring a late equaliser to draw 1-1 at Eibar last weekend. But one can see Celta’s attacking style being too much for Getafe to resist as the Deep Blues try to rid themselves of the travel sickness that has blighted them throughout 2015.

Getafe has lost seven Spanish Primera Division away matches in a row and the only teams that have dropped home league points to the Deep Blues since December 2014 have been Levante (19th in the top flight this season), Granada (20th in the top flight this season), Cordoba (relegated from the top flight last season) and Elche (relegated from the top flight last season). The message is clear: only relegation candidates fail to accrue three Spanish Primera Division points from home games versus Getafe and Celta is not playing like a side destined for a relegation scrap.

Last term’s corresponding Spanish Primera Division fixture resulted in a 3-1 home win for Celta over Getafe and the reverse match was heading for a draw until the Deep Blues netted a late goal. Marathonbet are quoting odds of -189 about a Celta victory and those prices are big enough to warrant inclusion in one’s Spanish Primera Division portfolio.

One does not have to be a statistical wizard to make a case for backing under two and a half goals in Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division game between Malaga and Sociedad. 888Sport and Unibet are listing odds of -161 about the option and that will do nicely in view of the respective team’s core numbers.

It is one of European football’s craziest facts that Malaga has failed to score in the first six rounds of the Spanish Primera Division and each of its half a dozen matches have gone under one and a half goals, including its away games against Barcelona and Real Madrid. And while Sociedad has scored five goals in its six Spanish Primera Division matches, La Real have had fewer attempts on target than Malaga and four of their games have gone under one and a half goals. Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division match does not sound like one worth making an effort to go and watch, much like the last four meetings of the sides – all of them have gone under two and a half goals at an average of one goal per clash. One was expecting bookmakers to be doing their utmost not to lay one’s suggested exotic play.

Finally, when bookmakers get around to post cards markets on Sunday’s Spanish Primera Division derby between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid it may pay to get short of yellow cards and, in particular, red cards following the decision of league bosses to appoint Alberto Undiano to referee.

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid crossed paths eight times last term and the cards points totals for those games were 50, 70 (twice), 75, 80, 100, 110 and 115. Only two players received red cards in Atletico-Real derbies last season – Atletico’s Arda Turan and Real’s Luka Modric – and one thinks that Spanish Primera Division officials have chosen Undiano with a view to keeping Sunday’s match 11 versus 11.

Undiano does not reach for his red card easily – he has sent off players in just three of his last 32 games – so he is not made from the same mould as most Spanish referees. The last three games between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid that Undiano has controlled have had card points totals of 40 (twice) and 60 so look for value close to kick-off time.

Tips Summary

Celta to beat Getafe
2nd October 19:30 GMT
Odds:  -189

Malaga v Sociedad Under 2.5 goals
3rd October 21:05 GMT
Odds:  -161

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid Unders Cards Market
4th October 19:30 GMT
Odds: +110 Under 6.5 cards

Alberto Undiano
Arda Turan
Atletico Madrid
Deep Blues
Luka Modric
Real Madrid
Spanish Primera Division

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