Many punters avoid of odds-on away favourites but there is a compelling case for backing Tottenham to justify its short quotes for victory at Aston Villa in one of only five English Premier League games scheduled this weekend.
Aston Villa is likely to go down as one of the worst teams in the English Premier League’s 24-year history and it is possible that the Villans may part company with Remi Garde before its season from hell is over even though he inherited a doomed side when he succeeded Tim Sherwood in November.
One’s English Premier League collateral form analysis says that the 18-position gap between Aston Villa and Tottenham on the ladder is totally fair. Second-placed Tottenham holds a 17-1-1 English Premier League collateral form edge over Aston Villa, with Spurs having outperformed the Villans against every top-flight team except Leicester (a tie because both sides lost by an aggregate of one goal) and Newcastle (Tottenham lost 1-2 at home to the Magpies, whereas Aston Villa drew 1-1 at St James’ Park).
Garde was announced as Aston Villa’s new coach just hours before November’s reverse English Premier League fixture that Tottenham won 3-1 at White Hart Lane – Mousa Dembele and Dele Alli put Spurs in control before half time and Harry Kane scored late in second-half stoppage time after Jordan Ayew has given some hope to the toiling Villans.
Aston Villa has not beaten an English Premier League team ranked higher than 14th and Tottenham is 11-1-1 against sides positioned lower than 12th. The atmosphere at Villa Park is so poisonous that Aston Villa does not possess a home advantage and, therefore, one is quite happy to take odds of -189 with Coral about Tottenham winning on Sunday.
Number crunchers will be keen on backing Saturday’s English Premier League match between Stoke and Southampton to go under two and a half goals at odds of -156 with Marathonbet.
Both Stoke and Southampton have played 29 English Premier League games featuring 65 goals – only divisional matches featuring Manchester United and Watford have lower goal averages. Stoke and Southampton are two of the English Premier League’s four sides that have participated in 17 games that have gone under two and a half goals, with the others being Watford and West Bromwich. Eight of Stoke’s 14 English Premier League home matches have gone under two and a half goals, while 10 of Southampton’s 14 divisional away games have gone under that line. Stoke beat Southampton 1-0 in the reverse English Premier League fixture four months ago, no-one adding to Bojan Krkic’s 10th-minute flick.
Leicester completes one’s English Premier League punting portfolio because Betfred, Paddy Power and Totesport should not be offering odds as big as -161 about the championship leader beating the second-bottom team at home on Monday.
Newcastle has pulled off a couple of decent results but the bulk of its English Premier League form is well below that of Leicester, with the Foxes enjoying a clear-cut 14-0-5 collateral form advantage over the Magpies, including an emphatic 3-0 victory in November’s reverse fixture.
Finally, here are one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 30’s five games – it is abbreviated due to English FA Cup matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Norwich 4-2-13* versus Manchester City
Bournemouth 10*-3-6 versus Swansea
Stoke 7*-4-8 versus Southampton
Aston Villa 1-1-17* versus Tottenham
Leicester 14*-0-5 versus Newcastle
Spurs to beat Aston Villa
Sunday 13th March, 16:00 GMT
Stoke v Southampton Under 2.5 goals
Saturday 12th March, 15:00 GMT
Leicester to beat Newcastle
Monday 14th March, 20:00 GMT