Dortmund and Sevilla are underpriced favourites for their UEFA Europa League matches against Tottenham and Basel respectively based on any number of long-term trends.
UEFA rates the German Bundesliga above the English Premier League so one does not have a problem with Germany’s second side, Dortmund, being the favourite for its UEFA Europa League tie versus England’s second team, Tottenham. With what one does have a problem is the strength of Dortmund’s favouritism that suggests that BVB are quite a lot better than Tottenham. For starters, one thinks that was just as much merit in Tottenham’s three-goal aggregate win in the last UEFA Europa League round as there was for Dortmund’s victory by the same margin. The betting on Thursday’s UEFA Europa League game between Dortmund and Tottenham is out of whack and one has found where the best value wager lies.
Coral is offering odds of 57/1001.57-1750.57-1.750.57 about Tottenham plus two goals at Dortmund. Across all competitions, Tottenham has played 42 matches this season – 29 in the English Premier League, eight in the UEFA Europa League, four in the English FA Cup and one in the English Capital One Cup. Not once in any of Tottenham’s 42 competitive games has it lost by more than one goal and that includes 20 away matches. Tottenham deserves much more respect from the bookmaking fraternity.
Dortmund does possess some impressive statistics, with BVB having won 23 of their 41 competitive games this term by more than one goal, including 13 out of 19 at home. But Tottenham would have to rank as Dortmund’s second toughest opponent this season behind Bayern Munchen and BVB’s two matches against the Allianz Arena side resulted in a 0-0 home draw and a 1-5 away loss. Dortmund profiles like a potential flat-track bully and, at the odds, one has to oppose BVB giving up two goals to a Tottenham team that has not copped a two-goal-plus hiding since losing 0-3 at Stoke in the English Premier League 10 months ago.
Equally unattractive at its UEFA Europa League odds is the defending champion, Sevilla, which is not much bigger than even money to register a first-leg success at Basel. Surely bookmakers are aware that Sevilla travels about as well as fine china sharing a carrier bag with a slab of bricks.
Sevilla ranks 15th on the Spanish Primera Division’s away ladder having drawn nine and lost five of its 14 league games on the road. Each of Sevilla’s UEFA Champions League Group D away matches resulted in defeat – 0-2 at Juventus, 1-2 at Manchester City and 2-4 at Monchengladbach – while the Red and Whites lost 0-1 at Molde in their last UEFA Europa League game, albeit after winning their home leg comfortably 3-0. Sevilla’s only road wins this season have occurred in the Spanish Copa del Rey and their only away victory over a top-flight side happened in Seville because the Red and Whites got the better of city rival Betis.
Basel is 14 points clear at the top of the Swiss Super League so it has been able to focus on its UEFA Europa League campaign for some time. Just Real Madrid and, in a shock result, Belenenses, have beaten Basel in the Swiss Super League pacesetter’s last 15 UEFA tournament home games. Bet365 is offering odds of 3/41.75-1330.75-1.330.75 that Basel either beats or holds Sevilla on Tuesday and one wants to be with Roger Federer’s favourite team at those kind of prices.
Finally, Fenerbahce’s home form and Portuguese influence is sufficient for one to pick to the Turkish Super Lig leader at odds of 4/51.80-1250.80-1.250.80 with Betfred and Totesport to post a vital victory over Portugal’s representative, Braga, on Thursday.
Fenerbahce, which boasts a Portuguese coach and several of the country’s finest players, has won 14 and drawn four of its last 18 home matches across all competitions. Braga’s raw away numbers are fine but Sporting have come unstuck when visiting the leading sides in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, winning just one of their six road games versus teams positioned above halfway on the ladder. Also, Braga has lost both of its Portuguese Primeira Liga matches against the division’s championship favourites, Benfica and Sporting.
Tottenham +2 to beat Dortmund
Thursday 10th March, 18:00 GMT
Basel or Draw v Sevilla
Thursday 10th March, 18:00 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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