Milan has yet to keep an Italian Serie A clean sheet and all it’s league points have come in matches against teams below it on the ladder but bookmakers are betting as though the Red and Blacks are superior to their Saturday host, Torino.
It does make sense to an impartial Italian Serie A observer so backing Torino to register its sixth home league win in a row at odds of +150 with Marathonbet is the best bet of the eighth round of games. In simple terms, odds of +150 about a home team mean that, if the Italian Serie A match was taking place at a neutral ground, it would trade as the underdog. One cannot comprehend how any bookmaker could rate Milan above Torino – it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
Torino is four points better off than Milan following seven Italian Serie A rounds, the bulk of the collateral form lines favour Giampiero Ventura’s side and the Maroons are the only team to have taken points off Fiorentina – Milan lost 0-2 away to the championship frontrunner. Torino is a notch or two above Milan and, therefore, bookmakers would be quite justified in quoting the Maroons at odds of -111 or thereabouts to accrue three Italian Serie A points from a home game versus Milan. Torino should be odds on in view of all the relevant data yet it is available at odds of +150 .
Lazio has strung together four wins on the spin across all competitions but one must take issue with the Sky Blues being the favourites for their Italian Serie A visit to Sassuolo on Sunday. The state of the market call for a draw-no-bet play on Sassuolo, which is just three points below Lazio on the Italian Serie A ladder and boasts a significant edge over its rival using collateral form.
Sassuolo and Lazio have had three common Italian Serie A opponents – Bologna, Chievo and Napoli. Handicapping those results by rating home advantage as being worth half a goal, all three collateral form lines favour Sassuolo over Lazio – two of them by wide margins. Sassuolo has lost only one of its 10 Italian Serie A home matches since Lazio exited with a 3-0 away victory in March. The head-to-head form line does not support one’s suggested bet but the overwhelming bulk of recent data does and the odds are attractive – Sassuolo is available at odds of 2.28 draw no bet with sister bookmakers 888Sport and Unibet. Bet365 is offering odds of -149 that Sassuolo does not lose its Italian Serie A home game against Lazio and clearly that is a decent alternative.
Finally, most punters will be predicting goals when Italian Serie A high fliers Napoli and Fiorentina clash on Sunday but perhaps the best exotic bet would be backing under 10 and a half corner kicks when bookmakers frame those markets.
Napoli and Fiorentina are ranked 17th and 13th respectively for Italian Serie A corner kicks taken and both teams have been pretty stingy when it comes to conceding corners as well. Each of Napoli’s seven Italian Serie A matches have gone under 10 and a half corner kicks, with its home games having a mean of seven corners exactly. All bar one of Fiorentina’s seven Italian Serie A matches have gone under 10 and a half corner kicks and none of its three away games have had more than seven corners. Bookmakers may throw up odds that take the view that those statistics are short-term anomalies but one is willing to bet that both Napoli and Fiorentina are less corner-kick friendly than other Italian Serie A title contenders such as city rivals Lazio and Roma.
Torino to beat Milan
17th October 19:45 GMT
Sassuolo to beat Lazio DNB
18th October 14:00 GMT
Napoli v Fiorentina Under 10.5 Corners
18th October 14:00 GMT
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