Torino to Dent Overrated Milan’s Serie A Top-Six Hopes

Torino are overpriced to beat Milan in Serie A on Wednesday.

Torino’s most recent Italian Serie A home game resulted in a defeat of a Milan-based team and one thinks that the Maroons are hugely overpriced to repeat the trick on Wednesday.

Internazionale lost 0-1 at Torino in Italian Serie A action earlier this month and this week it is Milan’s turn to take on the Maroons in Turin. Milan has not won any of its last three Italian Serie A matches – all of them at home – and yet bookmakers are listing the Red and Blacks as the favourites for Wednesday’s away game versus a Torino side that has won three and drawn one of its most recent four divisional fixtures, including both of its home dates.

Torino is 10th on the Italian Serie A ladder and, in all likelihood, it cannot lift itself into one of Italian Serie A’s UEFA Europa League qualification spots. Milan, on the other hand, is sixth on the Italian Serie A ladder and in contention for a berth in either the UEFA Champions League or the UEFA Europa League. That Milan has, on face value, more for which to play than Torino explains why bookmakers can expect to write more bets on the Red and Blacks than the Maroons but it does not explain the odds that they are quoting. Undoubtedly, Milan is a false favourite and Torino can be backed at  +225   with BetVictor.

According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Torino holds an 11-0-8 advantage over Milan and the Maroons drew 0-0 away to the Red and Blacks in November’s reverse fixture. Torino has not lost at home to Milan in Italian Serie A since December 2012 so, if you rate the value of head-to-head data beyond this season, there are even more reasons to oppose the Red and Blacks at short odds.

The Italian Serie A title is within touching distance for Juventus and one cannot see the Old Lady slipping up at Crotone on Wednesday given one’s number crunching.

Juventus netted three second-half goals to beat Crotone 3-0 in November’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture, one of 27 league wins for the Old Lady. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Juventus boasts a 19-0-0 lead over Crotone, which means that the Old Lady have fared better than the Pythagoreans against every other team in the division. Perfect collateral form records are rare and the most recent Italian Serie A heavyweight to visit Crotone was Roma and it came away with a 2-0 win and three points.

Crotone has faced Juventus three times in Italian Serie A over the last one and a bit seasons and each of those three matches resulted in a win to nil for the Old Lady. Crotone has failed to score in eight of its nine Italian Serie A games versus first-ranked Juventus, second-ranked Napoli, third-ranked Lazio, fourth-ranked Roma, fifth-ranked Internazionale and sixth-ranked Milan so there is a strong case for backing Juventus to win to nil at odds of  -115   with BetVictor on Wednesday.

Both Napoli and Roma boast 14-1-4 Italian Serie A collateral form edges over their midweek foes but the latter is trading at much longer odds to get the better of Genoa than the former is to beat Udinese so the Yellow and Reds round out one’s selections at odds of -278   with Betway. Roma was heading to victory at Genoa in November before Daniele De Rossi received his marching orders and the Yellow and Reds conceded the penalty kick that their misbehaving midfielder has given away.

Tips Summary

Torino to beat Milan
Wednesday 18th April, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  +225

Juventus to beat Crotone to Nil
Wednesday 18th April, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -115

Roma to beat Genoa
Wednesday 18th April, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -278

Italian football
Serie A

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