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The Form of Malaga and Eibar Is Stronger Than It Looks
Eric Roberts 2015-12-03 in Football Tips
Most of the major European football leagues are at the stage where collateral form analysis is at its most powerful since it identifies instances in which ladders do not reflect the true merit of teams. And the 14th round of Spanish Primera Division matches features three vastly underrated sides.
Deportivo made it on to our main Spanish Primera Division list of three bets at odds of 53/253.12+2122.122.12-0.47 to defeat Sevilla on Saturday. The other two Spanish Primera Division teams whom one thinks are trading at hugely disrespectful odds are Malaga, which is available at odds of 13/27.50+6506.506.50-0.15 with Bet365 to win at Athletic on Sunday, and Eibar, which is available at odds of 15/44.75+3753.753.75-0.27 with BetVictor to take three points from its Basque derby at Sociedad on the same day.
Athletic is seventh on the Spanish Primera Division ladder after 13 rounds, 10 points and 11 rungs above Malaga. And one can understand why everyday Spanish Primera Division punters may not rush to back Malaga to win Sunday’s game against Athletic since the Anchovies have earned only one point from their last four divisional matches, failing to score in three of those fixtures. But one’s collateral form analysis suggests that the wide gap between Athletic and Malaga on the Spanish Primera Division ladder is false.
Athletic and Malaga have had 12 common Spanish Primera Division opponents. The result of one’s collateral form analysis is that the lines featuring Betis, Espanyol, Getafe, Gijon and Valencia favour Athletic, the lines featuring Barcelona, Deportivo, Eibar, Granada, Real Madrid and Sociedad favour Malaga and the line featuring Villarreal is a tie. Even awarding Athletic a half-goal advantage over Malaga because the former will host Sunday’s Spanish Primera Division game only brings the Lions level with the Anchovies at 6-6. Athletic’s recent Spanish Primera Division results have been superior to those of Malaga but, overall, one would argue that there is very to choose between the value of their outcomes and that they should be adjacent to each other on the ladder rather than far apart. Malaga is over the odds at 13/27.50+6506.506.50-0.15 to win Sunday’s Spanish Primera Division match and the Anchovies are attractively priced in handicap betting, particularly plus two goals at odds of 53/1001.53-1890.53-1.890.53 with several bookmakers, including Bwin and Ladbrokes.
A bias in favour of a famous name over a lesser known one is the only rational explanation as to why Sociedad is odds on across the board to get the better of Eibar in Sunday’s Spanish Primera Division local argument. One’s collateral form analysis suggests that Eibar fully deserves to be eight points and seven rungs ahead of Sociedad on the Spanish Primera Division ladder following 13 rounds of action.
Sociedad and Eibar have had eight common Spanish Primera Division opponents. The result of one’s collateral form analysis is that the lines featuring Granada, Levante and Sevilla favour Sociedad, the lines featuring Athletic, Barcelona, Celta, Las Palmas and Malaga favour Eibar and the line featuring Atletico Madrid is a tie. That gives a lead of Eibar of 5-1-3, which comes down to 5-4 when one takes into account that Sociedad will enjoy home advantage over the Gunners in Sunday’s Spanish Primera Division game.
It is as clear as day that Eibar is over the odds at 15/44.75+3753.753.75-0.27 to register its first-ever Spanish Primera Division away defeat of Sociedad and that the Gunners represent decent value at odds of 19/201.95-1050.95-1.050.95 with Boylesports to either win or draw on Sunday.
Malaga to beat Athletic
6th December 19:30 GMT
Eibar to beat Sociedad
6th December 11:00 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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