Five Italian Serie A sides are likely to start games as odds-on favourites in the sixth round of matches and Lazio is the one that warrants opposing at its short price.
Lazio took the lead against Napoli in the midweek Italian Serie A round but the White and Sky Blues lost the game in the space of six second-half minutes as, ultimately, their lengthy injury list prevented them from holding out the ladder leader. Lazio’s medical team remains super busy, leaving the White and Sky Blues so short in defence that Lucas Leiva may have to line up in their rearguard.
Zero clean sheets in its last five matches across Italian Serie A and the UEFA Europa League is another reason why one is reluctant to endorse Lazio at odds on to win on the road at Verona on Sunday. And then there is the Italian Serie A collateral form line featuring Napoli, the only opponent in common with Lazio and Verona. Lazio lost 1-4 at home to Napoli, whereas Verona went down 1-3 at home to the same side. Admittedly, Verona was losing 0-3 to Napoli before its guest was reduced to 10 men in the 82nd minute and Hellas scored from the subsequent penalty kick but, even if one inputs them as losing 0-3, they rate the same as Lazio.
Successful long-term punting is all about obtaining value and one thinks that Verona, as horrible as its results in the first five Italian Serie A rounds have been, constitutes a decent bet at odds of +143 with 32Red and 888Sport not to lose to a compromised Lazio team coming off a heavy defeat.
One is going to play the value card in another Italian Serie A clash and nominate Bologna at odds of -125 with Bet365 to get something out of its Sunday game at Sassuolo.
Bologna and Sassuolo occupy adjacent positions on Italian Serie A’s ladder but, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Red and Blues are superior to the Black and Greens. Bologna drew 1-1 at home to Torino in the opening Italian Serie A round and, just one week later, Sassuolo lost 0-3 at the Maroons. Bologna has triumphed on each of its last two visits to Sassuolo and the Black and Greens would be crazy to risk one of their attacking spearheads, Domenico Berardi, versus the Red and Blues due to injury.
Of the short-priced Italian Serie A commodities, the one that should make most appeal to accumulators punters is Napoli at odds of -385 with Marathonbet to win at SPAL.
Napoli is scoring goals for fun and leads the Serie A table, whereas SPAL has fired blanks in four of its five matches back in Italy’s top flight. Both Napoli and SPAL have crossed paths with Lazio in Italian Serie A and, whereas the Partenopei won 4-1 in Rome, the White and Blues drew 0-0 in the capital. And three Italian Serie A matches in the space of a week is a demanding schedule that should, in theory, place the big sides such as Napoli at a distinct advantage over the teams with smaller squads such as SPAL.
Verona or Draw – Double chance
Sunday 24th September, 14:00 GMT
Bologna or Draw – Double chance
Sunday 24th September, 17:00 GMT
Napoli to beat SPAL
Saturday 23rd September, 17:00 GMT