Goals-related wagers are the most appealing bets in the 27th round of English Premier League games and none is more juicy than over two and a half goals in Saturday’s match between Swansea and Burnley at the Liberty Stadium.
One only has to look at Swansea’s statistics on this particular betting market to think that over two and a half goals should be odds on. Twenty of Swansea’s 26 English Premier League matches have gone over two and a half goals, including 10 of its 13 home games and 13 of its last 14 fixtures irrespective of venue. Swansea has climbed the English Premier League ladder since Paul Clement agreed to manage the Swans in early January but they have escaped the relegation zone in spite of conceding many goals. For the record, Clement’s seven English Premier League matches in charge of Swansea have seen the Swans keep just one clean sheet and leak a total of 13 goals.
While only half of Burnley’s 26 English Premier League games have gone over two and a half goals, eight of its 12 away matches have exceeded that particular line in spite of the Clarets being the division’s lowest scorers on the road. One picked Burnley to draw at Hull last weekend so one does not believe that the Clarets are hopeless on their travels and Swansea’s defence, which is comfortably the most porous in the English Premier League, is likely to shower its guest with opportunities to get off the mark. Yes, the reverse English Premier League fixture concluded 1-0 to Swansea but that game took place in the first round and, if Saturday’s match was programmed for Turf Moor, one would have a very different view of how the clash is likely to pan out. Betfair is the pick of the bookmakers that is offering odds against over two and a half goals, with the firm listing the option at +120 .
Whereas Swansea and Burnley are likely to put on a show for English Premier League viewers, Stoke and Middlesbrough are likely to bore watchers of their Saturday game to tears.
Sixteen of Stoke’s 26 English Premier League matches have gone under two and a half goals, including nine of its 13 home games. But Stoke’s numbers have nothing on those of Middlesbrough, which leads the English Premier League in dull matches. Seventeen of Middlesbrough’s 26 English Premier League games have gone under two and a half goals, including nine of its 13 away matches. Middlesbrough and Stoke drew 1-1 in the opening English Premier League round and, with Boro seemingly set on grinding their way to safety and the Potters likely to be cautious off the back of a 0-4 road defeat, under two and a half goals at odds of -167 with 188Bet, Betfair and Marathonbet is attractive.
Finally, Liverpool and Arsenal have a history of producing high-scoring encounters so one is picking over two and a half goals at odds of -125 with Paddy Power when the Reds and the Gunners clash in a Saturday evening blockbuster.
Six of the last seven games between Liverpool and Arsenal across all competitions have gone over two and a half goals, including their epic English Premier League match at the Emirates Stadium in August that the Reds won 4-3.
Fifteen of Liverpool’s 26 English Premier League games have gone over two and a half goals, including seven of its 12 home matches. Seventeen of Arsenal’s 25 English Premier League games have gone over two and a half goals, including nine of its 12 away matches. That Liverpool and Arsenal are off the English Premier League title pace is because, while they can score goals, they cannot stop conceding them.
Swansea v Burnley – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 4th March, 15:00 GMT
Stoke v Middlesbrough – Under 2.5 goals
Saturday 4th March, 15:00 GMT
Liverpool v Arsenal – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 4th March, 17:30 GMT