Villarreal are a ridiculous price to finish the season on a high.

Speculate on Yellow Submarine Sinking Red and Whites

Villarreal are a ridiculous price to finish the season on a high.

There are two ways that Spanish Primera Division punters can approach the final round of matches – either wager on the obvious or take a gamble on one of the rank outsiders.

The obvious is to back both Barcelona and Real Madrid to be too good for Granada and Deportivo respectively in the games that will decide the destiny of the Spanish Primera Division trophy. Real must win away to Deportivo to have any chance of overtaking Barcelona because, if the Spanish Primera Division giants finish level on points, Barca will win the championship due to their superior head-to-head record against the Meringues. Neither Granada nor Deportivo has anything for which to play other than pride – both teams will live to fight another Spanish Primera Division season – so it is difficult to see either Barcelona or Real slipping up. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Barcelona enjoys a 17-1-1 lead over Granada and Real boasts an impeccable 19-0-0 advantage over Deportivo. Yes, that is correct – Real has outperformed Deportivo against every Spanish Primera Division side.

At the best prices – Barcelona is available at odds of -833  and Real Madrid is trading at odds of -556  with Marathonbet, making for a -313  double – that is the obvious way for the punting community to tackle the 38th round of Spanish Primera Division matches, albeit rather predictably.

The Spanish Primera Division gamble that one thinks is worth taking concerns backing Villarreal to beat Gijon on Sunday in one of the three games that will settle the relegation issue. Gijon’s Spanish Primera Division fate is out of its own hands because it will not be able to overtake Getafe on the ladder if the Dark Blues win their match at Betis. That is because Gijon’s Spanish Primera Division head-to-head record versus Getafe is a poor one. Indeed, Gijon’s Spanish Primera Division head-to-head record against Vallecano is equally bad, which has relegation implications as well.

Bet365 is offering odds of +900  about Villarreal, one of the Spanish Primera Division’s four UEFA Champions League qualifiers, defeating 18th-placed Gijon. Those odds are ridiculous in the extreme even though Villarreal does not have anything for which to play other than pride. Gijon slumped to a 0-2 Spanish Primera Division loss when it visited Villarreal in January and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Red and Whites trail the Yellow Submarine 3-1-15. Villarreal has outperformed Gijon versus 15 of the 19 Spanish Primera Division teams, with the four exceptions being Deportivo, Las Palmas, Sevilla and Sociedad. And do not forget that Gijon’s Spanish Primera Division goose will be as good as cooked if Getafe opens the scoring at Betis and particularly if it gets a handy lead.

Finally, here are one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis results for each of Round 38’s 10 games. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.

Valencia 9-1-9* versus Sociedad
Deportivo 0-0-19* versus Real Madrid
Granada 1-1-17* versus Barcelona
Athletic 9-5-5* versus Sevilla
Atletico Madrid 15*-1-3 versus Celta
Malaga 8*-3-8* versus Las Palmas
Betis 8-5-6* versus Getafe
Gijon 3-1-15* versus Villarreal
Vallecano 11-1-7* versus Levante
Espanyol 6-3-10* versus Eibar

Tips Summary

Barcelona and Real Madrid Win Double
Saturday 14th May, 16:00 GMT
Odds:  -313

Villarreal to beat Gijon
Sunday 15th May, 18:30 GMT
Odds:  +900

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