Sevilla is one of Europe’s form teams and it rates as the best bet on the Spanish Primera Division card at odds of -110 with Betfred to post an away win over Granada on Sunday.
Rebounding after making a poor start to its Spanish Primera Division and UEFA Champions League campaigns, Sevilla has strung together six wins and two draws from its last eight matches across all competitions, conceding only one goal and beating Juventus 1-0 in that run. Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid have three of the Spanish Primera Division’s four UEFA Champions League berths locked up but fourth place is up for grabs and Sevilla is just five points behind the current incumbent, Celta, in spite of its bad beginning.
While Sevilla is moving in the right direction, Granada is embroiled in a Spanish Primera Division relegation dogfight. Granada is 18th on the Spanish Primera Division ladder and it has won only three games, one of which was against the league’s bottom side, Levante. Granada and Sevilla have had 16 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the 12-point gap between the teams on the ladder understates the difference between the sides because the ledger is so slanted in the latter’s favour. Sevilla enjoys a 13-1-2 Spanish Primera Division collateral form advantage over Granada so one has no issue with backing Unai Emery’s team to register an away victory.
Granada and Sevilla clashed four times across the Spanish Copa del Rey and the Spanish Primera Division last season, with the latter registering three victories and the other match ending all square. So the recent head-to-head form supports siding with Sevilla over Granada as well.
Gijon is safely in odds-against territory to accrue three Spanish Primera Division points from its home game versus Getafe on Monday and that is interesting on two counts.
First, Getafe owns the Spanish Primera Division’s worst away record of 0-2-6 with a goal difference of -15. One has noted on several occasions that Getafe has not won on the road to a current Spanish Primera Division side since it defeated Deportivo 2-1 in October 2014. Therefore, juicy odds about Getafe falling to a Spanish Primera Division away loss have to be of interest to any punter interested in value bets.
Second, one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis suggests that Gijon is superior to Getafe, which is the opposite of what the ladder suggests. Gijon and Getafe have had 15 common Spanish Primera Division foes and one’s collateral form analysis favours the former over the latter 7-3-5. The reality is that most Spanish Primera Division punters base their betting decisions on the ladder so, inevitably, bookmakers lean upon the ladder heavily.
Marathonbet are offering odds of +130 about Gijon consigning Getafe to its latest Spanish Primera Division away defeat. One gets why Gijon is available at those odds but one thinks that Sporting ought to be trading at odds no bigger than +105 .
Finally, one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis suggests that the ladder is incorrect and that Villarreal is not superior to its Sunday host, Deportivo.
Deportivo and Villarreal have had 15 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and Super Depor lead the Yellow Submarine 9-0-6 according to one’s collateral form analysis. Deportivo is the outsider for Sunday’s Spanish Primera Division match because of the state of the ladder but one rates Super Depor above Villarreal and, also, they have the benefit of more rest between games. Totesport are quoting Deportivo at odds of +188 and it is simply too big.
Sevilla to beat Granada
3rd January 15:00 GMT
Gijon to beat Getafe
4th January 19:30GMT
Deportivo to beat Villarreal
3rd January 17:15 GMT
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