Serie A Monday Match to Defy Bookie’s Expectations

Napoli are light on strikers for the visit of Sassuolo.

Napoli are light on strikers for the visit of Sassuolo.

Bookmakers think that Monday’s Italian Serie A match between Napoli and Sassuolo will be a high-scoring affair but one is not so sure that the game will be all that action packed.

Napoli is light on for strikers because Arkadiusz Milik is out of action for several months and Manolo Gabbiadini is rated doubtful. Dries Mertens is the favourite to lead Napoli’s attack and he is clearly his club’s third string.

Sassuolo’s star player, Domenico Berardi, is not expected to feature for the Black and Greens until next month and they are half the team without him. One believes that Napoli will get the better of Sassuolo but the Blues cannot be backed at prohibitive prices because of their injury issues up front.

Thankfully, bookmakers are offering deluxe odds about under three and a half goals in the Italian Serie A match between Napoli and Sassuolo, with Unibet listing -143  on their betting website.

Nine of Napoli’s 13 Italian Serie A games have gone under three and a half goals and the same statistic applies to Sassuolo’s 13 divisional matches. Nine out of 13 equals 69.23 per cent and that percentage equates to odds of -227 . So, clearly, there is a value case for taking odds of -143 .

Last season’s corresponding Italian Serie A fixture ended 3-1 in favour of Napoli but Gonzalo Higuain, now plying his trade for Juventus, scored twice for the triumphant Blues.

Milan appeals at odds against to get the chocolates in its Italian Serie A game at Empoli on Saturday, with the Red and Blacks trading at +110  with quite a few bookmakers, including BetVictor and William Hill.

Seventeenth-placed Empoli has not won any of its 12 Italian Serie A matches versus sides above it on the ladder, with its two wins being over 19th-ranked Crotone and cellar dweller Pescara. Empoli has failed to score in nine of its last 10 Italian Serie A games and the relegation zone is calling unless the Blues locate the net more frequently.

Milan and Empoli have had 11 common Italian Serie A foes and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Red and Blacks hold a 7-2-2 advantage over the Blues, thereby endorsing what the raw divisional ladder suggests. Carlos Bacca is out for Milan but many Red and Blacks supporters have been asking for Gianluca Lapadula to start anyway.

Last term, Milan beat Empoli 2-1 at home before drawing 2-2 in the reverse fixture, twice leading away to the Blues.

Finally, one is going to pick Juventus to maintain its lead at the top of the Italian Serie A title race with a road victory over Genoa on Sunday at odds of -149  with Coral.

Juventus secured first place in its UEFA Champions League group with an impressive 3-1 away win over Sevilla in midweek and, provided that the Old Lady have recovered from their exploits in Spain, they should defeat Genoa.

According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Juventus boasts an 8-0-1 lead over Genoa. For those who are interested, Juventus has outperformed Genoa against all bar Milan this season. Juventus is first in Italian Serie A, seven points clear of Roma and Milan and 17 points in front of a Genoa team that has accrued most of its wins and draws against mediocre sides beneath it on the divisional ladder.

Tips Summary

Napoli v Sassuolo – Under 3.5 Goals
Monday 28th November, 18:00 GMT
Odds:  -143

AC Milan to beat Empoli
Saturday 26th November, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  +110

Juventus to beat Genoa
Sunday 27th November, 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -149