The last Italian Serie A game before Christmas is the one on which to fill your stocking because Internazionale is over its true odds to get the better of Lazio on Sunday.
Internazionale is guaranteed to top the Italian Serie A ladder at the end of 2015 because it is four points clear of both Fiorentina and Napoli. And Internazionale deserves to be 11 rungs and 16 points above Lazio on the Italian Serie A ladder based on their respective results versus common foes.
Collateral form analysis – essentially, rating the results of teams against the same opponents – is the key to making sense of the ladder at this stage of the Italian Serie A season and, of the 10 matches on this weekend’s card, the one with the most interesting statistics is Internazionale versus a Lazio team that is the division’s problem side.
Internazionale and Lazio have had 14 common Italian Serie A opponents and one’s take on the results of those 28 games is that the collateral form lines favour the league leader over the 12th-placed team by 11 to three with zero ties. One’s collateral form analysis supports the Italian Serie A ladder and suggests that bookmakers are trading the wrong odds on Sunday’s match. Internazionale is available at odds of -125 with Betfred to beat Lazio when, in view of the cold, hard facts, Roberto Mancini’s side ought to be trading below the -200 mark. Lazio’s absentee list is longer than that of Internazionale, the White and Sky Blues are bottom of Italian Serie A’s six-game form table and they have lost six of their seven away matches.
One has to take issue with Atalanta being such a despised outsider for its Italian Serie A game versus Napoli on Sunday, with the betting on the match enabling punters to strike odds-against wagers about the home team not losing.
There are negatives regarding Atalanta, the most serious of which is that it will line up against Napoli without two of its regular starters, Niccolo Cherubin and Jasmin Kurtic, after both of them were sent off versus Chievo last weekend.
However, there are positives concerning Atalanta. First, Atalanta’s seven Italian Serie A home games have produced five wins, one draw, one loss and just four goals conceded. Second, one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis says that Atalanta is not all that far behind Napoli. Atalanta and Napoli have had 14 common Italian Serie A opponents, with the results of one’s collateral form analysis breaking six to the former and eight to the latter with zero ties. Napoli is well into odds-on territory to win at Atalanta on Sunday and, while an away victory is the most likely of the three possible outcomes, it is too short in the betting.
Bet365 are listing Atalanta plus one goal at odds of +130 . By and large, Napoli has been unconvincing away from home in Italian Serie A throughout 2015 so one is willing to oppose the third-placed team on Sunday.
Finally, one is selecting Roma to defeat Genoa in Sunday’s Italian Serie A match in the capital. Roma is starting to get some of its players back on deck, whereas Genoa will have two men suspended – Leonardo Pavoletti and Diego Perotti – as it tries to turn the corner. Genoa has lost each of its last four games across all competitions, including three on home soil versus unheralded foes.
Roma and Genoa have had 14 common Italian Serie A opponents and one’s collateral form analysis had 10 lines favouring the Wolves, two lines favouring the Red and Blues and two lines as ties. Genoa is unlikely to break its Italian Serie A away duck at Roma so one is willing to put a pen through the possibility of a road victory. William Hill is offering odds of -182 about a Roma success and that is fair enough.
Internazionale to beat Lazio
20th December 19:45 GMT
Atalanta +1 to beat Napoli
20th December 14:00 GMT
Roma to beat Genoa
20th December 14:00 GMT
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