Sampdoria to fall short of Genoa derby double

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The away team won the first of this season’s Genoa derbies in Italian Serie A and one thinks that there is good chance that the second local argument will result in an away win.

Sampdoria is one of Italian Serie A’s three unbeaten home teams but home advantage is little more than nominal in the Genoa derby and one is keen to take on Samp because they are in awful form. Sampdoria lost its cutting edge when Manolo Gabbiadini departed for Napoli during the recent transfer window and, arguably, its most disappointing result lately was its 1-1 Italian Serie A home draw with a Sassuolo side missing each of its three regular forwards through bans.

Gabbiadini’s goal was the difference between Sampdoria and Genoa when they met in the fifth round of Italian Serie A, his 75th-minute strike settling what was an even game. One cannot understand why Sampdoria is such a warm favourite for Saturday’s Italian Serie A rematch, with Samp struggling at both end of the pitch and Genoa coming off a couple of good victories – 1-0 away to Lazio and 5-2 at home to Verona.

A home team has not won any of the last four Genoa derbies and one likes the idea of backing Sampdoria to fall short on Saturday. Genoa is available at odds of -161  with several bookmakers, including Bet365, Boylesports and Bwin, to get at least one point out of the Italian Serie A game.

One flagged the dangers of supporting a Carlos Tevez-less Juventus in its Italian Serie A road match against Cesena and, sure enough, Juve drew 2-2 albeit only after Arturo Vidal missed an 82nd-minute penalty kick. Tevez is free to line up for Juventus in its Italian Serie A home game versus Atalanta and that means that one is cool with backing Juve at odds of -500  with several bookmakers, including Coral and WilliamHill, to accrue three points.

Juventus crushed Atalanta 3-0 when the teams met in Italian Serie A action in Bergamo five months ago so one does not need to be a rocket scientist to suggest that Juve should complete the league double. However, one advises sticking with Juventus simply to win the Italian Serie A match and not getting stuck into the half-time/full-time option for which Juve is well into odds-on territory as well. Juventus has only led at both breaks in five of its 12 Italian Serie A home games and Atalanta has only trailed at both breaks in three of its 12 Italian Serie A away games so there is no value in backing Juventus/Juventus at odds of around -149 .

One thinks that Lazio will beat Palermo in their Italian Serie A match on Sunday but that there is better value in backing the home team to win in spite of conceding at least one goal than punting the short odds about a simple victory.

Lazio deserves to be a pick on this weekend’s Italian Serie A coupon because, after all, it did pummel Palermo 4-0 on the road in September. Palermo has improved significantly since that dark day, though, particularly in the scoring stakes, finding the back of the net in all bar three of its subsequent 18 Italian Serie A games. Actually, Palermo has failed to score in just one of its last 15 Italian Serie A matches and that was away to inconsistent Internazionale.

Sportingbet is offering odds of -149  about a Lazio win over Palermo in their Italian Serie A game but one prefers the odds of +270  with several bookmakers, including 888Sport, Bwin and Unibet, about a home victory and an away goal.

With regards to Italian Serie A exotics, there are stark statistics that support backing Monday’s match between Napoli and Sassuolo to go over two and a half goals at odds of -143  with Boylesports. Eight of Napoli’s 11 Italian Serie A home games have gone over two and a half goals, while eight of Sassuolo’s 12 Italian Serie A away games have gone over two and a half goals. Both statistics are Italian Serie A highs for the season so the case for the bet is clear.

Tips Summary

Genoa to beat Sampdoria
21st February 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -161
Where to Bet: Bet365, Boylesports, Bwin

Juventus to beat Atalanta
20th February 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -500
Where to Bet: Coral, WilliamHill

Lazio to beat Palermo and BTTS
22nd February 14:00 GMT
Odds:  +270
Whereto Bet: 888SportBwinUnibet

Napoli v Sassuolo Over 2.5 goals
23rd February 18:00 GMT
Odds:  -143
Where to Bet: Boylesports

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