Samp Overpriced to Beat Flying Donkeys in Dead Rubber

Sampdoria are a good price to beat Chievo this weekend.

It is one of only two Italian Serie A matches on Saturday that do not have serious repercussions but one cannot get away from backing Sampdoria to beat Chievo in it.

The pointy end of any Italian Serie A season is a difficult time to identify value bets and, usually, one would draw a thick, black line through any game in which neither team needs to win. Tenth-placed Sampdoria cannot finish higher than ninth on the Italian Serie A ladder, while 12th-placed Chievo cannot end up lower than 15th in the rankings.

Overall, Sampdoria’s Italian Serie A collateral form edge over Chievo is just 11-0-8, which correlates with Samp being two rungs and four points higher than the Flying Donkeys on the ladder. But Sampdoria has outperformed Chievo in seven of their respective aggregate ties against Italian Serie A’s top nine sides, suggesting that Samp are, in reality, quite a bit superior to the Flying Donkeys. Home advantage for an Italian Serie A match that, on paper, does not mean an awful lot also counts for something because surely Sampdoria will be more motivated to perform than Chievo. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Sampdoria should be shorter odds than the -110  that is available with Bet365. Certainly it is not an Italian Serie A round on which you should risk your house but Sampdoria is a couple of board rolls overpriced.

A combination of early team news, collateral form and ego is why one is picking Juventus to clinch the Italian Serie A title by getting the better of Roma on Saturday, an option that is trading at odds of +188  with Bet365.

A draw at Roma would be sufficient for Juventus to secure the Italian Serie A silverware irrespective of how Napoli fares versus Torino because of the competition’s tie-breaker rule that places the greatest importance on direct head to heads. But Juventus, which put Monaco out of its misery in the early throes of Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League match, is unlikely to encounter Roma striker Edin Dzeko. Italian Serie A’s leading goal scorer has a calf strain so he will probably miss the potential championship decider.

According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Juventus and Roma are tied at 8-3-8 but that is because the Yellow and Reds have feasted on the division’s lesser lights and not because they have performed well in big games. One’s assessment of the Italian Serie A results is that Juventus has outperformed Roma 3-1-0 in those matches featuring them, Napoli, Lazio and Atalanta. Juventus is definitely superior to Roma and the latter is not going to be at full strength.

And what would be more satisfying for Juventus than sealing its sixth consecutive Italian Serie A title on the pitch of the side ranked second with three rounds to go? Not much.

Napoli is very short odds to win its Italian Serie A game at Torino on Sunday. One thinks that Napoli will earn three points from its Italian Serie A road trip but one is more keen on backing Dries Mertens to score at least one goal at odds of -108  with 32Red, 888Sport and Unibet than his team.

Mertens has scored 24 Italian Serie A goals in his 25 starts and seven substitute appearances for Napoli this term and he scored a remarkable four times in his side’s 5-3 home victory over Torino in December’s reverse fixture. Mertens has been on target in 14 Italian Serie A matches and, with Dzeko out of action through injury, he has a shot at finishing the tournament as its top marksman.

Tips Summary

Sampdoria to beat Chievo
Sunday 14th May, 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -110

Juventus to beat Roma
Sunday 14th May, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  +188

Dries Mertens to score at any time
Sunday 14th May, 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -108

Dries Mertens
Serie A

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