Saints to Go Marching to Victory After Half Time

Southampton might have to wait until after half-time to beat Villa.

Southampton might have to wait until after half-time to beat Villa.

The half-time/full-time double-result market is not one of one’s regular haunts but it presents an opportunity to back Southampton at excellent odds to become the latest English Premier League team to inflict a defeat upon Aston Villa.

Bookmakers know that there are millions of English Premier League punters for whom betting on an Aston Villa loss has been a weekly ritual so they have chalked up Southampton at short odds to win Saturday’s match at Villa Park. With all due respect to Southampton, backing the English Premier League’s 12th best away side at odds on to win on its travels does not get one’s pulse racing. And only Aston Villa, Newcastle, Norwich and West Bromwich is averaging fewer goals per English Premier League away match than Southampton. There are smarter ways to bet at odds on.

However, one does think that there is value in supporting Southampton to beat Aston Villa after the Villa Park game goes to the half-time break all square. No English Premier League team has been level at half time on the road more than Southampton, with the Saints having a 2-11-4 first-half record away from home. Southampton has scored just five first-half goals in its 17 English Premier League road matches and it has leaked only seven early goals. Aston Villa’s English Premier League first-half home numbers are 2-5-10, with the Villans netting just four times before the half-time oranges. Draw-Southampton is available at odds of +340  with 888Sport and Unibet and that appears to be the best way with which to back the hot away favourite.

According to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, Southampton enjoys a 14-2-3 lead over Aston Villa and that is despite December’s reverse fixture resulting in a 1-1 St Mary’s Stadium draw that favoured the Villans.

Anfield will be an emotional place on Saturday when former Liverpool boss Rafael Benitez returns with his Newcastle side desperate for English Premier League points to stave off relegation. Benitez is a good manager but he is not a miracle worker and Newcastle is 19th on the English Premier League ladder because it is a poor team that, apart from a couple of fluke victories over Bournemouth and Tottenham, has been atrocious on its travels. Coral is offering odds of -161  about Liverpool defeating Newcastle and, in what is a difficult English Premier League round, the Reds rate as one’s second most attractive wager on the card.

Liverpool is flying, its players are getting to grips with Jurgen Klopp’s preferred style and Newcastle, well, it is the English Premier League’s lowest road scorer. Yes, that is correct – Newcastle has scored fewer English Premier League away goals than Aston Villa. And no side has let in more English Premier League away goals than Newcastle.

One’s English Premier League collateral form analysis put Liverpool 11-1-7 ahead of Newcastle and that is in spite of Klopp not beginning to wave his magic wand until October.

Championship-chasing Tottenham is the English Premier League banker of the round at odds of -400  with several bookmakers, including Paddy Power and Totesport, to get the better of West Bromwich on Monday. Tottenham holds a 13-3-3 English Premier League collateral form edge over West Bromwich and Spurs should have far too much firepower for a Baggies team that has posted seven of its 10 divisional wins by 1-0.

Finally, here are one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis results for each of this weekend’s seven games. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.

Manchester City 12-3-4* versus Stoke
Aston Villa 3*-2-14 versus Southampton
Bournemouth 8*-2-9 versus Chelsea
Liverpool 11-1-7* versus Newcastle
Sunderland 4-5-10* versus Arsenal
Leicester 14*-2-3 versus Swansea
Tottenham 13*-3-3 versus West Bromwich

Tips Summary

Draw Half Time/Southampton Full Time
Saturday 23rd April, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +340

Liverpool to beat Newcastle
Saturday 23rd April, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  -161

Tottenham to beat West Brom
Monday 25th April, 20:00 GMT
Odds:  -400