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Luciano Spalletti, who in his second spell as Roma coach, has inspired the Yellow and Reds to be Italian Serie A’s form team, winning each of their last six league games. Roma has not defeated an Italian Serie A side ranked higher than seventh during its winning streak but, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Yellow and Reds are a notch above Fiorentina overall and more obviously superior to the Purples when assessing only games featuring the top teams. Roma enjoys a 10-0-9 Italian Serie A collateral form edge over Fiorentina but the lead of the Yellow and Reds stands at 3-0-0 and 5-0-2 if one is more selective. Also, Roma won October’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture 2-1 on the road, leading 2-0 until Mohamed Salah’s 87th-minute dismissal.
Roma and Fiorentina will kick off the 28th round of Italian Serie A matches and one thinks that the Yellow and Reds are overpriced at odds of +115 with Betfred and Totesport to complete a double over the Purples with a home victory.
Fiorentina’s Italian Serie A away record of 6-3-4 reads well but Roma’s home numbers of 9-3-1 are better and every single key piece of data suggests that the Yellow and Reds are on a slightly higher level than the Purples. Odds of +115 imply that Roma and Fiorentina are level pegging and one cannot agree with that, hence why one is picking the Yellow and Reds to collect three Italian Serie A points on Friday.
Juventus has stamped its authority as Italian Serie A’s top dog and the championship frontrunner is worth supporting at odds of -189 with Paddy Power and William Hill to post its 20th win of the league season by beating Atalanta on Sunday.
Atalanta has not won any of its last 12 matches since it beat Italian Serie A relegation candidate Palermo 3-0 at home in December. Atalanta does not look the type of side that is going to end the 17-game Italian Serie A unbeaten run of Juventus, particularly in light of one’s collateral form figures. Juventus boasts a 14-4-1 Italian Serie A collateral form advantage over Atalanta – Roma is the exception to the rule – and the White and Blacks took out October’s reverse fixture by a 2-0 margin that they had built before Rafael Toloi received his marching orders.
Juventus has an incredible record against Atalanta – it has won each of the last 11 meetings of the teams, it is 15-2-0 in the last 17 clashes and it is not lost an Italian Serie A encounter since February 2001. Thankfully, there is more to Juventus than the history books and that is why the Black and Whites make this weekend’s Italian Serie A short list.
Bologna should be odds on to defeat Carpi on Sunday so one is picking the Red and Blues at odds of +101 with Marathonbet to consolidate their position on the top half of the ladder with a home victory over the side one rung off the bottom.
According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Bologna holds an 11-3-5 edge over Carpi, including a 2-1 win in October’s reverse fixture, achieved albeit with some help from Lorenzo Lollo’s 38th-minute red card. Bologna was not playing well at that stage of the Italian Serie A season so, even with assistance from the refereeing gods, it was a fine effort for the Red and Blues to pick up three away points.
Bologna has every right to be trading at odds around the -143 mark to get the better of Carpi, not least because the White and Reds have an Italian Serie A road record of 1-4-8 and its one away success was over 16th-placed Genoa.
Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 28’s 10 matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Roma 10*-0-9 versus Fiorentina
Verona 6-2-11* versus Sampdoria
Napoli 15*-1-3 versus Chievo
Torino 10-1-8* versus Lazio
Atalanta 1-4-14* versus Juventus
Bologna 11*-3-5 versus Carpi
Frosinone 5*-4-10 versus Udinese
Genoa 9-2-8* versus Empoli
Sassuolo 6-3-10* versus Milan
Internazionale 16*-0-3 versus Palermo
Roma to beat Fiorentina
Friday 4th March, 19:45 GMT
Juventus to beat Atalanta
Sunday 6th March 14:00 GMT
Bologna to beat Carpi
Sunday 6th March, 14:00 GMT
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