For the third Italian Serie A round in a row, Roma is one’s headline selection as the Yellow and Reds prepare to tackle Udinese away from home in one of Sunday’s seven matches.
Seven is the number of Italian Serie A games that Roma has won on the bounce with Luciano Spalletti’s impact on the Yellow and Reds clear for all to see – they have barely put a foot wrong domestically since his second spell as their manager began in the middle of January. There is no doubt whatsoever that Juventus, Napoli and Roma are quite some distance ahead of every other Italian Serie A team – the Yellow and Reds demonstrated that by thrashing Fiorentina 4-1 last weekend – and odds not far below even money about Spalletti’s side winning at Udinese are more than fair.
According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Roma enjoys a 13-1-5 lead over Udinese, including a 3-1 win in October’s reverse fixture. And Roma’s advantage over its weekend opponent becomes even more significant if one looks only at Italian Serie A matches featuring decent teams. Roma boasts Italian Serie A collateral form edges over Udinese of 5-0-0 and 8-1-0 if one only counts games featuring sides in the top five and the top nine respectively. Apart from its shock 1-0 win at Juventus in August, Udinese has failed in 11 Italian Serie A matches versus top-eight teams, accuring a total of just six points from those games. Udinese is not in the Italian Serie A relegation zone because it has picked up enough points in its matches against fellow strugglers.
Another Italian Serie A away side on which one is keen is Milan at odds of +110 with William Hill to get the better of Chievo in the first game that will take place on Sunday.
Milan has a 11-2-6 Italian Serie A collateral form lead over Chievo, including a 1-0 win in October’s reverse fixture. And, like Roma versus Udinese, Milan against Chievo gets increasingly one-sided from an Italian Serie A collateral form perspective the more that one focuses on matches in which the good teams play. Milan enjoys a 7-0-1 Italian Serie A collateral form edge over Chievo if one only counts games featuring sides in the top eight, with Napoli being the odd team out. However, one should note that neither Milan nor Chievo fared well in Italian Serie A combat against Napoli – they earned one point between them.
Both Internazionale and Bologna have featured in more than their fair share of low-scoring Italian Serie A matches so one is keen on their Saturday encounter going under two and a half goals at the generous odds of -118 with Marathonbet.
Seventeen of Internazionale’s 28 Italian Serie A games have gone under two and a half goals, including nine of its 14 home matches. Eighteen of Bologna’s 28 Italian Serie A games have gone under two and a half goals, including 10 of its 13 away matches. Bologna has not featured in a high-scoring Italian Serie A game since late January and the reverse fixture between Internazionale and the Red and Blues ended 1-0 to the former even though it played the last half hour with 10 men following Felipe Melo’s 60th-minute dismissal.
Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 29’s 10 matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Juventus 15-1-3* versus Sassuolo
Empoli 8*-3-8 versus Sampdoria
Internazionale 9*-2-8 versus Bologna
Chievo 6-2-11* versus Milan
Carpi 9-1-9* versus Frosinone
Fiorentina 15*-1-3 versus Verona
Genoa 8*-4-7 versus Torino
Udinese 5-1-13* versus Roma
Lazio 7-2-10* versus Atalanta
Palermo 2-0-17* versus Napoli
Roma to beat Udinese
Sunday 13th March, 14:00 GMT
Milan to beat Chievo
Sunday 13th March, 11.30 GMT
Inter v Bologna Under 2.5 goals
Saturday 12th March, 19:45 GMT