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Roma to post another win to nil at home

got its UEFA Champions League humiliation at home to Bayern Munchen out of its system with an Italian Serie A draw at Sampdoria and it constitutes the best bet on the domestic league’s full midweek program at odds of -125  with Paddy Power to beat Cesena at home without conceding a goal.

Just as every person is entitled to a bad day at the office, every football team is entitled to a bad day on the pitch. Roma had no answer to Bayern Munchen last week, trailing 0-5 after 36 minutes and eventually losing 1-7. But Roma proved its mettle by having the better of its next match, bossing its Italian Serie A away game against Sampdoria and coming up with a 0-0 draw rather than the win that it deserved.

Roma has played four Italian Serie A home matches this term and it has won each of them to nil, defeating Cagliari, Chievo, Fiorentina and Verona without conceding a goal. Since the beginning of last season, Roma has played 23 Italian Serie A home games for 19 wins, three draws and one loss (Juventus), with 16 clean sheets and 14 wins to nil.

Cesena is the Italian Serie A relegation favourite. Cesena kicked off its Italian Serie A campaign with a 1-0 home win over Parma, a result that has lost its gloss because Parma is bottom of the league ladder after eight rounds. Cesena has lost three of its Italian Serie A road matches – two of them without scoring a goal – and it would be pointless on its travels if Emmanuel Cascione had not converted a penalty kick in stoppage time of its away game versus Udinese.

Cascione is one of two Cesena players banned for its Italian Serie A match at Roma – Nicola Leali is the other – so one is keen on the home side posting a win-to-nil success.

One predicted that the Italian Serie A game between Empoli and Cagliari would be high scoring and the only shock was that Zdenek Zeman’s team netted all the goals. The time has come to back goals in every Italian Serie A match featuring Cagliari and BetVictor‘s odds of -128  about Zeman’s side and Milan combining for over two and a half goals appeal.

Cagliari’s eight Italian Serie A games have had an average of 3.00 goals, with five of them going over two and a half goals. One expects Cagliari’s over/under two and a half goals numbers to skew towards over as the Italian Serie A season progresses and it gets more comfortable with Zeman’s tactics, which one can simplify as attack, attack, attack.

Milan’s eight Italian Serie A matches have had an average of 3.50 goals, with just Parma games being more entertaining. Four of Milan’s eight Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals and all bar one of its league matches has had at least two goals. Milan’s four Italian Serie A road games have been particularly high scoring, featuring 19 goals at an average of 4.75, including a 5-4 win at Parma.

Finally, as exciting to watch as the Italian Serie A match between Cagliari and Milan promises to be, one fears that the league game between Fiorentina and Udinese may be dull and, consequently, BetVictor‘s odds of -120  about under two and a half goals at the Artemio Franchi leap off the page.

Fiorentina’s eight Italian Serie A matches have produced a league-low 12 goals, with seven of them going under two and a half goals. According to the latest reports out of Italy, Fiorentina is likely to line up against Udinese without its expensively acquired forwards, Mario Gomez and Giuseppe Rossi, as their respective injuries have not cleared up.

Udinese’s eight Italian Serie A games have had an average of 2.13 goals and seven of them have gone under two and a half goals. The ingredients for a low-scoring match are present.

Tips Summary

Roma to beat Cesena
29th October 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -125
Where to Bet: Paddy Power

Cagliari v Milan Over 2.5 goals
29th October 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -128
Where to Bet: BetVictor

Fiorentina v Udinese Under 2.5 goals
29th October 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -120
Where to Bet: BetVictor

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