Only the mighty Juventus and Real Madrid have beaten Roma fair and square during the last three months and the Yellow and Reds stand out from the Italian Serie A crowd at odds of -111 with Betfred to beat Empoli on Saturday.
Five consecutive Italian Serie A victories after losing 0-1 at Juventus have catapulted Roma back into contention for a UEFA Champions League berth, whereas Empoli’s campaign is destined for mid-table mediocrity because it has failed to win any of its last seven divisional games. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Roma enjoys a 12-2-5 lead over Empoli and the Yellow and Reds won the reverse fixture 3-1, leading October’s match 3-0 before the Blues scored their goal. Furthermore, Roma’s Italian Serie A edge over Empoli is 5-0-0 for games featuring the top five teams, 7-1-0 for games featuring the top eight teams and 10-2-3 for games featuring the top 16 teams. What those statistics suggest is that Roma has significantly outrated Empoli in matches against Italian Serie A’s strongest sides.
Empoli regulars Riccardo Saponara and Lorenzo Tonelli are suspended for one game and three games respectively, with the former being his team’s second highest goal scorer in Italian Serie A having netted five times from midfield. Only Carpi and Udinese have scored fewer Italian Serie A home goals than Empoli and, therefore, the Blues may not have the arsenal to match the division’s second highest scorer, Roma.
Juventus versus Internazionale is one of the marquee games on the Italian Serie A calendar – it is arguably the most intense match between sides from different cities – but the rivalry is insufficient for one not to pick the White and Blacks at odds of -167 with Bwin, to triumph on Sunday.
Midfield starters Marcelo Brozovic and Geoffrey Kondogbia are unavailable for Internazionale due to untimely bans and there is a persuasive argument that the Black and Blues are lucky to be fifth on the Italian Serie A ladder. After all, all nine of Internazionale’s Italian Serie A wins over teams ranked in the top 14 have been by a 1-0 margin and the Black and Blues have lost six of their nine league games against sides positioned higher than ninth. Internazionale kicked off its Italian Serie A season with five straight victories but the Black and Blues have been exposed as being average.
Juventus had won 15 Italian Serie A matches in a row before its 0-0 draw at Bologna last time out, which was far from a bad result in light of the strong form lines of its host.
According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Juventus boasts a 14-0-5 advantage over Internazionale and that includes an even more imposing 7-0-1 lead based on results featuring the division’s top nine sides.
Sassuolo not to lose at Lazio on Sunday rounds out one’s Italian Serie A punting portfolio, with the option available at odds of +130 with Bet365. Effectively laying Lazio makes fair appeal because one does not believe that there is much to choose between the White and Sky Blues and Sassuolo.
First, Lazio and Sassuolo are adjacent on the Italian Serie A ladder with the latter having a one-point lead over the former. Second, Lazio trails Sassuolo 7-1-11 according to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, including losing the reverse fixture 1-2. Third, Lazio has not done anywhere near as well as Sassuolo versus Italian Serie A’s heavyweights, with the White and Sky Blues only outrating the Black and Greens against third-placed Fiorentina when one reviews the games featuring the top nine teams.
Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 27’s 10 matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Empoli 5-2-12* versus Roma
Milan 11*-4-4 versus Torino
Palermo 6*-2-11 versus Bologna
Carpi 6-4-9* versus Atalanta
Sampdoria 12-3-4* versus Frosinone
Chievo 8-0-11* versus Genoa
Udinese 11*-3-5 versus Verona
Juventus 14*-0-5 versus Internazionale
Lazio 7-1-11* versus Sassuolo
Fiorentina 6-4-9* versus Napoli
Roma to beat Empoli
27th February 17:00 GMT
Juventus to beat Inter
28th February 19:45 GMT
Sassuolo to win/draw v Lazio
29th February 18:00 GMT
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