Roma to finish the year with another home win


Roma is the best bet in the final round of Italian Serie A matches before the competition takes a couple of weeks off over the Christmas and New Year period, with one tipping the championship contender to defeat Milan in the Eternal City.

Just four positions separate Roma and Milan on the Italian Serie A ladder after 15 rounds but one thinks that there are grounds for thinking that the gap between the teams is, in reality, greater. That is because it is at this point of a competition that collateral form analysis comes to the fore, highlighting ladders that does not tell the whole truth.

Roma and Milan have 12 common Italian Serie A opponents and the collateral form lines favour Rudi Garcia’s side by quite some margin. One’s opinion is that eight of those Italian Serie A collateral form lines favour Roma, two of them are equal and two of them favour Milan. And with Roma enjoying home advantage for Saturday’s Italian Serie A game, punters should be keen on the home side at odds of -120  with Coral.

Both Roma and Milan are coming off Italian Serie A victories but one really respects the result that the Wolves achieved at Genoa. Roma won 1-0 despite being without the services of Italy midfielder Daniele De Rossi through suspension. Roma will have its key player back on board to face Milan.

Italian Serie A leader Juventus is rightly odds on across the board to get the better of Cagliari on Thursday as the Sardinians move ever closer to parting company with Zdenek Zeman, the coach who lives and dies by his crazy tactics.

Cagliari has failed to win any of its last seven Italian Serie A matches and, in a particularly worrying development, it has failed to score in each of its last three league games. That is very unlike a Zeman-managed team because usually one can rely upon some kind of offensive threat.

Juventus is top of the Italian Serie A ladder, it is the competition’s highest scorer and it is the competition’s lowest conceder. Cagliari and Juventus have had 12 common Italian Serie A opponents and one’s view is that just one of those collateral form lines favours Zeman’s side and that is because it beat Empoli by two more goals than Juve did. One thinks that Juventus has a 8-3-1 Italian Serie A collateral form line advantage over Cagliari and that is why one thinks that Juve is attractive at odds of -227  with Bwin and Coral.

Sassuolo hold a significant Italian Serie A collateral form line edge over Cesena and one would have had it near the top of one’s picks if it was going to be at full strength for Saturday’s game. But Sassuolo had two of its regular starters sent off in its 1-2 Italian Serie A loss at Palermo, including its best goalkeeper, Andrea Consigli.

Sassuolo’s loss is Fiorentina’s gain, at least in terms of being the third best bet on the Italian Serie A program.

Fiorentina‘s Italian Serie A form has improved as the size of its injury list has reduced, with its latest win coming at Cesena on Sunday when it led all the way to win 4-1.

Like Fiorentina, Empoli has compiled a nice little Italian Serie A unbeaten run but one has crunched the numbers and the collateral form lines favour Vincenzo Montella’s team. Fiorentina and Empoli have had 12 common Italian Serie A opponents and one thinks that eight of those collateral form lines favour the home side, plus it is worth noting that most of the ones that favour the away team pertain to a time when nothing was going right for Montella’s injury-hit team.

Bwin and Sky Bet  are offering odds of -175  that Fiorentina beats Empoli on Sunday and that seems like a fair play.

Finally, the pick of the Italian Serie A exotic options – at least when bookmakers get around to posting their markets – may be a bet on lots of cards points in the match between badly behaved Sassuolo and Cesena. Sassuolo is averaging 35.67 Italian Serie A cards points and Cesena has a league mean of 33.67 cards points, which ranks them first and second respectively. Let’s hope for a strict referee.

UPDATE – This has been a very slow market to go up. As of 11am on the 20th, the only market up was with Bet365, and there best offer is over 5.5 cards at +120 , and that seems like a decent bet to us!

Tips Summary

Roma to beat Milan
20th December 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -120
Where to Bet: Coral

Juventus to beat Cagliari
18th December 18:00 GMT
Odds:  -227
Where to Bet: BwinCoral

Fiorentina to beat Empoli
21st December 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -175
Where to Bet: Bwin, Sky Bet

Sassuolo v Cesena Over 5.5 cards
20th December 17:00 GMT
Odds:  +120
Where to Bet: Bet365

Andrea Consigli
Eternal City
Serie A
Zdenek Zenman

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