Fiorentina has won five Italian Serie A games on the spin, which is a remarkable effort given the trauma that the Purples have experienced due to the sudden death of Davide Astori, but they are likely to meet their match on Saturday.
Five consecutive Italian Serie A victories over teams ranked 10th to 20th – Chievo, Benevento, Torino, Crotone and Udinese – have lifted Fiorentina to eighth on the ladder but Roma is the toughest test that the Purples have faced since they lost 0-2 at home to championship favourite Juventus in February. Roma has won six and drawn one of its last eight Italian Serie A games and the Yellow and Reds probably did irreparable damage to Napoli’s title challenge when they fought back from trailing 0-1 to register a 4-2 away success last month.
November’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture between Roma and Fiorentina resulted in a 4-2 road win for the Yellow and Reds in which the triumphant team did not trail the Purples. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Roma enjoys a 12-4-3 lead over Fiorentina and the progressive counts of 5-4-0 and 8-4-1 demonstrate that the Yellow and Reds have outperformed the Purples when the sides have encountered the division’s most talented outfits.
Roma will have to back up from its 1-4 UEFA Champions League loss at Barcelona on Wednesday but the continental tie is pretty much out of its reach so the Yellow and Reds should focus their energies on shoring up their spot in next season’s tournament via Italian Serie A. Maybe Roma’s midweek trip to Spain is the reason why BetVictor are offering generous odds of -133 about the Yellow and Reds putting the finishing touches to an Italian Serie A double over a Fiorentina side that has failed to win any of its 12 league matches versus teams ranked in the top nine.
Sourcing good Italian Serie A bets gets tougher after Roma and one suspects that many punters will simply throw Juventus and Napoli into accumulators – both the Old Lady and the Partenopei should win but their odds do not scream value.
There is an argument that Bologna is overpriced at odds of +250 with BetVictor to accrue three points from its Italian Serie A visit to Crotone on Sunday. Crotone fought back not once but twice to beat Bologna 3-2 in November’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture but the bulk of this season’s results suggest that the Pythagoreans are not as good as the Red and Blues. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Bologna boasts a 12-3-4 advantage over Crotone, including a 5-0-2 edge when one counts just those games featuring the division’s seven highest-ranked sides.
One almost included Atalanta in one’s Italian Serie A selections but, if you must wager on a third match in the league this weekend, Napoli, at odds of -588 with Betway, is a slightly more attractive proposition than Juventus. Napoli holds a 17-1-1 Italian Serie A lead over Chievo and the Flying Donkeys, 14th on the ladder and with the division’s third-worst road record, have failed to score in any of their five league games against first-ranked Juventus, second-ranked Napoli, third-ranked Roma and fourth-ranked Internazionale. Napoli’s run home, which includes an away clash with Juventus, does mean that the Partenopei can still cling to some title hope.
Roma to beat Fiorentina
Saturday 7th April, 17:00 GMT
Bologna to beat Crotone
Sunday 8th April, 14:00 GMT
Napoli to beat Chievo
Sunday 8th April, 14:00 GMT