River Islanders to Leapfrog Royal Blues on Ladder

Bremen thumped Freiburg 5-2 over the weekend.

Bremen is one of the German Bundesliga’s in-form teams and it is a very generous price to post its sixth win in seven divisional matches by beating Schalke on Tuesday.

One does not know how the bookmaking fraternity has come up with the market consensus that Schalke is a lot, lot better than Bremen. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Schalke leads Bremen 7-1-9 but that is only a bit of the story. Bremen has outperformed Schalke 5-0-3 in their respective German Bundesliga games against sides in the top eight and, whereas the River Islanders are coming into the midweek round off the back of an incredible away win, the Royal Blues are rebounding off a poor home draw – Bremen thumped Freiburg 5-2 on the edge of the Black Forest at the same time as Schalke was drawing its biggest home match of the season 1-1 versus local rival Dortmund.

One priced up the German Bundesliga coupon and one’s Bremen tissue odds were a lot shorter than the +210  that Betfair and William Hill are offering about the River Islanders registering a victory that would see it leapfrog Schalke on the ladder at the conclusion of the 27th round.

Bremen was well beaten 1-3 in November’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture so that does not boost one’s confidence but Schalke is a false favourite and the River Islanders – all things considered – should be trading at odds of about +140 . It is as if bookmakers have got the team labels mixed up.

Hoffenheim is third on the German Bundesliga ladder and it is undoubtedly one of the division’s top four sides, hence why one is keen to find a way to get with Hoffe in their home game against first-placed Bayern Munchen on Tuesday.

Big-priced losers are not anyone’s idea of fun so one is not going to pick Hoffenheim to beat Bayern Munchen just because bookmakers are offering long odds about Hoffe becoming the second team to topple the German Bundesliga champion-elect. But there is a decent case for backing Hoffenheim plus one goal on William Hill‘s half-time handicap, an exotic option that is available at odds of -143 . Hoffenheim is 7-6-0 at half time in its 13 German Bundesliga home matches, while Bayern is 4-7-2 in its 13 divisional away games. Moreover, while Hoffenheim trails Bayern 3-3-11 according to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Hoffe is 2-2-2 compared to the Reds when only matches featuring sides in the top six count. Bayern has been thrashing the German Bundesliga’s lesser lights on a regular basis, whereas Hoffenheim has been accruing points less spectacularly.

Nine of Dortmund’s 12 German Bundesliga home games have been led at both half time and full time by the Yellow and Blacks and their Tuesday guest, Hamburg, is ripe to become the 10th such victims at odds of +105  with Coral, the bookmaker that goes out of its way to lay hot double-result favourites.

Dortmund is the German Bundesliga’s second strongest home performer and Hamburg is the division’s second weakest away performer. Does one need to write anymore? Well, just for good measure, Dortmund would be only two points adrift of Bayern Munchen if the German Bundesliga was a first-half competition and the Yellow and Blacks enjoy a 12-3-2 edge over Hamburg according to one’s collateral form analysis. November’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture ended 5-2 in favour of Dortmund after it led 3-0 at half time and 4-0 three minutes into the second period – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored his team’s first four goals.

Tips Summary

Bremen to beat Schalke
Tuesday 4th April, 19:00 BST
Odds:  +210

Hoffenheim (+1 Handicap) to win the First Half
Tuesday 4th April, 19:00 BST
Odds:  -143

Dortmund HT/FT double result
Tuesday 4th April, 19:00 BST
Odds:  +105

Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen

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