River Islanders Should be Favourites over Hoffe

Werder Bremen earned a 1-1 draw at Hoffenheim earlier in the season

Bremen is overpriced to beat Hoffenheim on Saturday, thereby increasing the probability of it qualifying for the UEFA Europa League and reducing the likelihood of its opponent avoiding the UEFA Champions League qualifying round.

No German Bundesliga team has accrued more points from its last 10 matches than Bremen, which was fighting against relegation before it turned the corner in the middle of February. Bremen won 2-0 at Mainz on Saturday 18 February and, including that game, the River Islanders have gone 9-2-1 in the German Bundesliga in their last 12 matches. Bremen’s German Bundesliga revival has been so impressive that one is willing to overlook how the River Islanders compare to opponents using one’s collateral form analysis because they are demonstrably not the side that they were throughout the first half of the season. Bremen have been scoring German Bundesliga goals for fun and winning here, there and everywhere over the last three months, with its most noteworthy results including a 3-0 home defeat of Leipzig and a 5-2 away vanquishment of Freiburg.

One has been on the Hoffenheim bandwagon for most of the German Bundesliga competition but one is jumping off now that Hoffe has lost control of their own destiny in the battle to finish third on the ladder. Hoffenheim lost 1-2 at Dortmund last weekend and now Hoffe needs the Black and Yellows to slip up otherwise they are heading to the UEFA Champions League preliminaries instead of the group stage automatically. One would not blame Hoffenheim’s players if they allowed their intensity to drop given the state of the German Bundesliga, whereas Bremen has everything for which to play because qualifying for the UEFA Europa League would be a remarkable achievement given its appalling start.

Bet365 and Betfair is offering odds of +190  about Bremen beating Hoffenheim. One thinks that bookmakers have chalked up the wrong favourite for this German Bundesliga game and that Bremen should be no bigger odds than +150 .

Ingolstadt will be relegated from the German Bundesliga if it loses at Freiburg on Saturday and one cannot believe the odds that bookmakers are quoting about the fifth-ranked team condemning the 17th-ranked team to its 19th divisional defeat – odds of +146  are available with Marathonbet.

The German Bundesliga ladder is not lying about Freiburg and Ingolstadt. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Freiburg holds a 10-2-5 lead over Ingolstadt, including a 2-1 away victory in December’s reverse fixture. By and large, only the German Bundesliga’s best have taken down Freiburg in the Black Forest and Ingolstadt has beaten just one side ranked in the top 10 – the Schanzer are 1-3-14 in their 18 games versus Bayern Munchen, Leipzig, Dortmund, Hoffenheim, Hertha, Koln, Bremen, Monchengladbach, Schalke and, of course, their UEFA Europa League-seeking hosts.

Both teams have scored in 13 of Dortmund’s 16 German Bundesliga road matches so, naturally, one is interested in odds of -135  with 188Bet about that eventuality occurring when the Black and Yellows visit Augsburg on Saturday.

With Dortmund boasting the German Bundesliga’s highest scoring away attack and needing two wins to secure third spot, one is confident that the Black and Yellows will find the back of the net against 13th-placed Augsburg. Dortmund’s weekend host is not safe from German Bundesliga relegation with two rounds remaining and, if the betting markets are correct, the Fuggerstadter will not pick up another point. Saturday is make or break for Augsburg, it has scored in 13 of its 16 German Bundesliga home games and Dortmund’s strong point is certainly not its defence on its travels.

Tips Summary

Bremen to beat Hoffenheim
Saturday 13th May, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +190

Freiburg to beat Ingoldstadt
Saturday 13th May, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +146

Augsburg v Dortmund – Both teams to score
Saturday 13th May, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -135

Borussia Dortmund
Werder Bremen

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