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Lincoln and Tranmere are two former English Football League teams fighting to get out of England’s fifth tier and one thinks that bookmakers have priced up their markets on Saturday’s top-of-the-ladder clash incorrectly.
The way that bookmakers are betting on the English National League’s match of the term so far suggests that they are of the opinion that Lincoln is inferior to Tranmere. One does not subscribe that view, however, and one thinks that the Red Imps are overpriced to beat Tranmere this weekend.
Lincoln is second on the English National League ladder but the Red Imps have played one fewer game than Tranmere, with Rovers enjoying a one-point lead over their next opponent. Lincoln’s English National League goal difference of plus 27 is six better than any of its divisional rivals and the Red Imps have scored a competition-leading 49 goals in their 23 matches. Lincoln recruited well in the summer months, going out of its way to secure the services of Danny Crowley. Now Lincoln is reaping the dividends of its pre-season work.
We have reached the halfway point of the English National League, which means that both Lincoln and Tranmere have run into almost every other side in the 24-team tournament. That mean that there is a plethora of collateral form into which one can sink one’s teeth and, even though Lincoln is below Tranmere on the English National League ladder, the Red Imps rank higher than Rovers on one’s preferred rating system.
Lincoln and Tranmere have lined up against 20 of the same English National League outfits and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Red Imps enjoy an 11-1-8 advantage over Rovers. Lincoln’s English National League collateral form edge over Tranmere increases to 12-1-8 if one includes the September meeting of the Red Imps and the Rovers at the latter’s Prenton Park in Birkenhead. Lincoln moved to the top of the English National League after its 1-0 away victory over Tranmere that ended the host’s then 100 per cent divisional home record. Macauley Bonne netted Lincoln’s winning goal, smashing the ball into the roof of Tranmere custodian Scott Davies’s net in the 67th minute, sending the travelling Red Imps supporters into delirium.
Rising to the occasion has been the story of Lincoln’s first campaign under Crowley. Lincoln has dropped some unnecessary English National League points but the Red Imps have been the kings of the big games, including registering road wins over top-of-the-ladder Tranmere and third-placed Forest Green, as well as reaching the English FA Cup third round.
Tranmere, on the other hand, has flopped when the pressure has been on Rovers. Tranmere has not beaten any of the other sides positioned in the English National League top four and Rovers exited the English FA Cup before the first round.
Marathonbet is offering odds of 38/25 2.52 +152 1.52 1.52 -0.66 about Lincoln returning to the top of the English National League ladder with a home victory over Tranmere. Those odds are disrespectful based on the statistics that one has cited in this article. If one agrees that Lincoln is, at the very least, equal to Tranmere then the Red Imps should not be trading at odds greater than 6/5 2.20 +120 1.20 1.20 -0.83 to win Saturday’s English National League blockbuster.
Punters who are looking for a way to get with Lincoln over Tranmere at bigger odds could dutch the Red Imps to win 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 – these options are available at odds of 73/10 8.30 +730 7.30 7.30 -0.14 with Marathonbet, 11/1 12.00 +1100 11.00 11.00 -0.09 with Coral and 9/1 10.00 +900 9.00 9.00 -0.11 with Unibet respectively – because Rovers have the English National League’s tightest defence. Dutching those odds produces a Lincoln-centric wager that has the potential to pay a dividend of 229/100 3.29 +229 2.29 2.29 -0.44 .
Lincoln to beat Tranmere
Saturday 17th December, 15:00 GMT
Odds: 38/25 2.52 +152 1.52 1.52 -0.66
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