Red Devils to beat Reds in marquee match

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It is the marquee match in the 16th round of English Premier League games and it just so happens that it throws up the best bet based on unemotional collateral form analysis.

Manchester United versus Liverpool is the English Premier League match in question and one’s review of their results suggests that the gap between the teams is greater than the seven points that separates them on the competition ladder.

There is a saying in football that the league ladder does not lie. One agrees that the league ladder does not lie at the end of the season when every team has played each of its rivals at home and on the road. But the league ladder does lie 14 rounds into a 38-round competition and, sometimes, it tells absolutely whopping fibbers that would make the nose of Pinocchio grow to the length of a football pitch.

Manchester United and Liverpool have had 12 common English Premier League opponents. Rating playing at home as being worth half a goal – so, for example, a 2-0 home win rates as plus one and a half goals, as does a 3-2 away win – one has crunched the numbers and found that nine of those collateral form lines favour Manchester United, one favours Liverpool and two are level. Factor in the morale of the two sides – Manchester United is on a five-game English Premier League winning streak, whereas Liverpool has won just two of its last nine matches across all competitions and fell into the UEFA Europa League on Tuesday – and the Red Devils rate as the most appealing bet in England’s top flight this weekend.

Totesport is offering odds of -110 that Manchester United beats Liverpool in an English Premier League game that Red Devils legend Gary Neville has said could be like a pub match such is the relatively poor form of the teams, a remark that received a blunt response from Louis van Gaal, who told Neville to watch his words. Manchester United may not be playing terrifically but the Red Devils are in much better shape than Liverpool and they are winning games, which is why Van Gaal took umbrage at Neville’s comments.

One is a fan of using collateral form lines at this point of a football league season and one’s analysis suggests that there is value elsewhere on the English Premier League coupon, with several away sides that are overpriced.

Southampton‘s reputation has taken a hit in recent English Premier League rounds but one likes the chance of the Saints marching to victory over Burnley at Turf Moor on Saturday.

English Premier League losses to Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United have resulted in Southampton dropping to fifth on the ladder and there is no argument that the Saints are someway short of the division’s top sides.

However, Southampton and Burnley have had 12 common English Premier League opponents and, according to our reading of those results, 10 of the collateral form lines favour the Saints, with the exceptions being the matches involving Manchester United and Stoke. It is worth noting that Southampton beat Stoke and that is just that Burnley’s victory over the Potters attracted a higher rating.

Southampton is available at odds of -125  with Coral and Paddy Power to beat Burnley on the road and put its quest for UEFA club competition qualification back on track.

Finally, West Ham is trading at odds of +175  with Ladbrokes to defeat Sunderland at the Stadium of Light, odds that are high in view of one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis that suggests that the Hammers are vastly superior to the Black Cats – more superior than the ladder suggests.

West Ham and Sunderland have had 12 common English Premier League opponents and our view is seven of those collateral form lines favour the Hammers, with three ties and two in favour of the Black Cats. Conservative punters may back West Ham on the draw-no-bet market but one thinks that the Hammers should be clear favourites for Saturday’s clash.

Tips Summary

Man Utd to beat Liverpool
14th December 13:30 GMT
Odds:  -110
Where to Bet: Totesport

Southampton to beat Burnley
13th December 15:00 GMT
Odds:  -125
Where to Bet: Coral, Paddy Power

West Ham to beat Sunderland
13th December 15:00 GMT
Odds:  +175
Where to Bet: Ladbrokes

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