Red and Blues to End Their Campaign on a Home High

Genoa can see their season out in style on Sunday.

Genoa can see their season out in style on Sunday.

Genoa goes into the final round of Italian Serie A games buzzing following its 3-0 derby defeat of Sampdoria and one thinks that the Red and Blues will wrap up their campaign with a home victory over lower ranked Atalanta on Sunday.

In terms of points per match, Genoa’s 10-3-5 home record is Italian Serie A’s equal sixth best, which is a good effort for a team that is 10th on the ladder. Only one side has won fewer Italian Serie A games than Atalanta – bottom of the ladder Verona – with the Goddess retaining its top-flight status thanks to its home form rather than its away results.

According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Genoa holds an 11-2-6 advantage over Atalanta, including a 2-0 win in January’s reverse fixture thanks to two goals in three minutes deep into the second half. Neither Genoa nor Atalanta has anything specific for which to play and, in those instances, one tends to favour the home team because it has thousands of fans on its side. One was expecting to see bookmakers listing Genoa at shade of odds on to defeat Atalanta so Unibet‘s offer of +130  is too good to pass up.

One has to go back to February 2012 for the last time that Genoa lost to Atalanta – the Red and Blues are 3-4-0 versus the Goddess over the last four and a quarter years, winning reach of the last two meetings but more than one goal.

Napoli is the hottest favourite on the Italian Serie A card and one cannot see the Partenopei slipping up at home to a Frosinone team that has had its relegation confirmed.

According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Napoli boasts an imposing 18-0-1 lead over Frosinone – the Partenopei have outperformed the Canaries against every side except Udinese. Rather than lump on Napoli to beat Frosinone at prohibitive prices, one suggests backing the Partenopei to lead the Canaries at both half time and full time, an option that is available at odds of -154  with BetVictor.

Napoli is Italian Serie A’s strongest home performer having accrued 48 points from its 18 matches in front of its own supporters. Napoli has led at both half time and full time in 11 of its 18 Italian Serie A home games, which is two more than title winner Juventus. Frosinone is Italian Serie A’s weakest away performer having accrued nine points from its 18 road matches. Frosinone has trailed at both half time and full time in 10 of its 18 away games, which is two more than any other team. Napoli thrashed Frosinone 5-1 in the Italian Serie A reverse fixture between the sides, leading 2-0 at the break before running riot in the second half.

One may have made Sassuolo one’s headline Italian Serie A pick had Domenico Berardi not made himself ineligible for his team’s match versus Internazionale but one is going to include the Black and Greens anyway. Sassuolo is vying with Milan for UEFA Europa League qualification and one would not be at all surprised if Internazionale rolled over and did not help its city rival – Inter are guaranteed to finish fourth in the Italian Serie A ladder. If Sassuolo retains Italian Serie A’s sixth spot then Milan will have to get the better of Juventus in the Italian Coppa Italia final to qualify for the UEFA Europa League instead of the Black and Greens. Sassuolo is interesting at odds of +105  with many bookmakers, including Betfred, SkyBet and Totesport, to take care of what it can do and defeat Internazionale.

Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for each of Round 38’s 10 games. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.

Juventus 17*-1-1 versus Sampdoria
Milan 5*-2-12 versus Roma
Napoli 18*-0-1 versus Frosinone
Sassuolo 7*-2-10 versus Internazionale
Chievo 8*-3-8 versus Bologna
Empoli 8*-2-9 versus Torino
Genoa 11*-2-6 versus Atalanta
Lazio 6*-2-11 versus Fiorentina
Palermo 9*-2-8 versus Verona
Udinese 8-4-7* versus Carpi

Tips Summary

Genoa to beat Atalanta
Sunday 15th May, 17:00 GMT
Odds:  +130

Napoli to beat Frosinone
Saturday 14th May, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -154

Sassuolo to beat Inter Milan
Saturday 14th May, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  +105