There is a clear value argument for picking Milan to get the better of Internazionale in Sunday’s Italian Serie A derby between the San Siro sharers.
For starters, Milan is third on the Italian Serie A ladder compared to Internazionale’s ranking of ninth, with eight points separating the teams following a dozen rounds.
One’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis suggests that Milan is genuinely superior to Internazionale as well. Milan and Internazionale have had six common Italian Serie A foes and the Red and Blacks lead the Black and Blues 3-2-1 based on the result of those 12 divisional matches.
Milan has won five of its last six Italian Serie A games to stamp itself as one of the competition’s form sides, whereas Internazionale sacked Frank de Boer because its results were not up to scratch. This weekend’s Italian Serie A match is, technically, an away game for Internazionale and, therefore, one cannot agree with bookmakers who are offering both sides at roughly the same odds for three championship points.
One has reached for the value card and playing it; there is little justification in Milan trading at odds greater than 2.40 and even that acknowledges some sections of the San Siro crowd will not be cheering for the Red and the Blacks. Take the 19/102.90+1901.901.90-0.53 on offer with Betfair.
Italy international Alessio Romagnoli is a huge doubt for Milan after sustaining a muscle problem while on national team duty but, such is the difference between one’s rated price and what is available in the market place, one is going to headline the Red and Blacks at juicy odds.
One’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis supports getting stuck into Marathonbet‘s odds of 37/501.74-1350.74-1.350.74 about Lazio extending its unbeaten run to eight matches with a home victory over Genoa in Italy’s capital city on Sunday.
Lazio and Genoa have had nine common Italian Serie A opponents and, based purely on one’s number crunching, the White and Sky Blues enjoy a 7-0-2 advantage over the Red and Blues. Only two of Italian Serie A’s top three sides have lowered Lazio’s colours this season, whereas Genoa has lost at fifth-placed Atalanta, 10th-placed Sassuolo and 14th-placed Sampdoria, the latter in a derby clash.
Those Italian Serie A collateral form numbers suggest that the tournament will finish will an even greater gap between Lazio and Genoa than currently. Marathonbet‘s odds have the potential to look incredibly generous in hindsight.
Finally, Chievo boasts an Italian Serie A collateral form edge of 3-2-1 over Cagliari so it should be shorter odds than the 1/12.00+1001.001.00-1.00 that BetVictor are quoting about the Flying Donkeys winning Saturday’s top-flight game.
That is particularly the case between, whereas Chievo coach Rolando Maran has only unavailable player – central defender Dario Dainelli is suspended – his Cagliari counterpart, Massimo Rastelli has four midfielders out of action. The problem for Rastelli is that Cagliari’s defence is Italian Serie A’s worst statistically and the selection issues that he faces versus Chievo are not going to help matters at all.
Chievo should be odds on across the boards to snap its five-match winless streak at the expense of a Cagliari team that has conceded at least four goals in three of its last four Italian Serie A game, including two away instances.
AC Milan to beat Inter Milan
Sunday 20th November, 19:45 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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