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Recent head-to-head form points to live outsiders
Eric Roberts 2014-09-03 in Football Tips
Punters who like to follow head-to-head form in sports such as darts, snooker and tennis may be interested to know that there are long odds available about recent head-to-head form holding up in a couple of UEFA Euro 2016 qualifying matches.
First, there is the UEFA Euro 2016 Group I game between Denmark and Armenia in Copenhagen. The FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking has Denmark in 26th place and Armenia in 36th place, a gap that does not really entitle the Danes to be trading at odds of 11/251.44-2270.44-2.270.44 with many bookmakers, including Bet Victor and Sky Bet, to accrue three home points.
Neither Denmark nor Armenia qualified for the FIFA World Cup as Italy was the only UEFA Group B team to take part in the main event. That Denmark was the group runner-up with the worst record, thereby denying it a place in the play-offs, had a lot to do with its failure at home to Armenia. Denmark conceded a goal in the first minute and it got progressively worse for the Danes, who trailed 0-2 at half time and 0-4 at full time. Denmark avenged its home loss with a 1-0 away win over Armenia but one should note that Daniel Agger’s winning goal was a penalty kick after Armenia had gone a man down.
Speculative punters should find interest in opposing Denmark versus Armenia on Sunday. Armenia is available at odds of 7/18.00+7007.007.00-0.14 with Paddy Power to beat Denmark in Kobenhavn for the second time in 15 months, while it is 37/202.85+1851.851.85-0.54 with Bwin to either win or draw and 500/1501.00+50000500.00500.000.00 to register another 4-0 away victory. Maybe that third option is for the true optimists only, with the double-chance play making the most sense.
Second, there is the UEFA Euro 2016 Group G match between Montenegro and Moldova in Podgorica. As was the case with Denmark and Armenia, Montenegro and Moldova crossed paths during FIFA World Cup qualifying. Montenegro and Moldova were in the same pool as, among others, England and Ukraine.
Montenegro beat Moldova 1-0 on the road but its home match was an unmitigated disaster. Alexandru Antoniuc struck twice as Moldova ended its unsuccessful FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign with a 5-2 defeat of Montenegro in Podgorica and the score was 5-1 until Stevan Jovetic’s late penalty kick.
One accepts that home advantage is a big deal but there is no way that Montenegro should be trading at odds of 9/201.45-2220.45-2.220.45 with Bwin to get its UEFA Euro 2016 Group G program off to the best possible start. Moldova is available at odds of 13/27.50+6506.506.50-0.15 with several bookmakers, including Betfair Sportsbook, Coral and Paddy Power, to get the better of Montenegro for the second time in 11 months, while it is 9/52.80+1801.801.80-0.56 with Coral and Paddy Power to either win or draw. Betting on the double-chance option is the go for conservative punters.
Finally, one wants to highlight the head-to-head form lines between Luxembourg and Belarus. One has to go back to the UEFA Euro 2012 preliminaries so they are not as recent as those outlined above but the fact remains that Luxembourg drew 0-0 with Belarus at home and only went down 0-1 in the reverse fixture. Luxembourg does not win out of turn but there is a fair case for backing the home side to draw, an outcome that Betfair Sportsbook is quoting at odds of 14/53.80+2802.802.80-0.36.
Armenia to beat Denmark
7th September 17:00 GMT
Where to Bet: Paddy Power
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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