Quiet achiever Augsburg to post another home win

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Augsburg is one of the German Bundesliga’s quiet achievers and it rates as the best bet in the 13th round of matches when it hosts Hamburg at its SGL Arena on Saturday.

Currently in its fourth German Bundesliga season, Augsburg is sixth on the ladder after 12 rounds and making a decent push for a place in one of UEFA’s two club competitions next term. Augsburg has won four of its five German Bundesliga home games, although it is only fair to point out that its victims have been eighth-placed Paderborn, 13th-placed Hertha, 14th-placed Freiburg and 17th-placed Bremen. But Hamburg is placed 15th on the German Bundesliga ladder and, therefore, one is not overly bothered about Augsburg’s relatively soft schedule in the first few months.

Hamburg has scored one goal in its six German Bundesliga away matches and that was against the run of its play in its inexplicable 1-0 win at Dortmund. Even allowing for Hamburg having visited three German Bundesliga top-six teams and last term’s runner-up it is hard to look past its road record and fancy it to avoid defeat away to Augsburg.

Augsburg has won each of its last three German Bundesliga games against Hamburg, including a comprehensive 3-1 home victory in their most recent clash seven months ago, so one likes the odds of +100  with 888sport, Unibet and William Hill about the Fuggerstadter posting another success.

One overestimated Hannover’s ability in an article last week and one is not going to forget that in a hurry. Hannover is away to Hoffenheim in the German Bundesliga on Saturday and one wants to oppose the 96ers at the Rhein Neckar Arena.

Hannover failed to live up to one’s expectations, losing 1-3 at home to Leverkusen to end its three-match winning run in the German Bundesliga. One is coming around to thinking that fifth position on the German Bundesliga ladder does flatter Hannover, which has a goal difference of minus four.

Hoffenheim won four and drew five of its first nine German Bundesliga games before it embarked on a three-match losing streak that has seen it lose to Bayern Munchen, Koln and Monchengladbach. One is willing to forgive Hoffenheim’s heavy defeats at Bayern Munchen and Monchengladbach, while it did manage to score three goals in losing at home to Koln so it was not a complete disaster for Markus Gisdol’s team.

Both of last term’s German Bundesliga encounters between Hoffenheim and Hannover resulted in Hoffenheim wins – 3-1 at home and 4-1 away – so one is going to side with the 1899ers at odds of -125  with several bookmakers, including Bwin and Ladbrokes, because those lines are strong.

Finally, German Bundesliga punters who like an exotic bet should look for total corner kicks odds pertaining to the game between Schalke and Mainz in Gelsenkirchen because bookmakers are likely to set their lines too high.

Schalke has had the fewest corner kicks in the first 12 German Bundesliga rounds, averaging 2.42 corner kicks per match, while its games have had a mean of 7.50 corner kicks.

Only Schalke (36) and Koln (38) have taken fewer German Bundesliga corner kicks than Mainz (44) and games featuring the 05ers have had an average of 9.08 corner kicks.

Bookmakers are slow to list corner kicks odds but one would be keen to bet under the line if it is set in double digits, which is a distinct possibility given that layers set the line at either 10 and a half corner kicks or 11 and a half corner kicks for the majority of top-flight matches.

Update – It seems bookmakers aren’t quite as generous as we would have hoped, with Under 10.5 corners a -208  shot with Bwin. It’s still backable, but not as favourable as I would have hoped for. The other option, is to take Under 9.5 corner with the same bookmaker at  -133

Tips Summary

Augsburg to beat Hamburg
29th November 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +100
Where to Bet: 888sport, UnibetWilliam Hill

Hoffenheim to beat Hannover
29th November 17:30 GMT
Odds:  -125
Where to Bet: BwinLadbrokes

Schalke and Mainz Under 10.5 corners
29th November 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -208
Where to Bet: Bwin

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