There are three home teams about which one can make strong cases that they are overpriced to win their UEFA Champions League group games in this week’s second round of matches.
Bookmakers have chalked up Rostov at underdog odds for its UEFA Champions League Group D home game versus PSV and one thinks that is an error. Rostov is making its UEFA Champions League debut this season and it qualified for the lucrative group stage by defeating Ajax 5-2 on aggregate, including posting a 4-1 home victory. Ajax is level on points and goal difference with PSV after seven Dutch Eredivisie rounds and the last league clash between the Amsterdam and Eindhoven sides resulted in a 2-0 away triumph for the former.
Rostov is superior to Ajax and, therefore, cannot agree with bookmakers that PSV are better than the Selmashi – such a conclusion flies in the face of logic given the results of games played already. Maybe bookmakers are reading too much into PSV’s run of 13 consecutive Dutch Eredivisie road wins. Perhaps bookmakers should be paying more attention to PSV’s UEFA Champions League away form, which features only one victory since 2008. Last season, PSV was 0-2-2 in its four UEFA Champions League road matches, scoring in just one of those games. Rostov has not lost a competitive home match since May 2015, going 17-7-0 after losing 0-1 to Terek 16 months ago. One is headlining Rostov at odds of +225 with 188Bet to get the better of PSV in Russia on Wednesday.
Spanish Primera Division teams complete one’s UEFA Champions League selections – Sevilla at home to Lyon in Group H and Atletico Madrid at home to Bayern Munchen in Group D.
Sevilla’s home record is simply too good to ignore when the Red and Whites are available at odds of -118 with William Hill to beat a Lyon team that is ninth in French Ligue 1.
One has written about Sevilla’s home form at length on many occasions – apart from an explicable wobble towards the end of last term it has been magnificent for a long time – so one is going to focus on Lyon’s away data in this article.
Lyon has played four French Ligue 1 road games this season, visiting the sides that are positioned 13th, 14th, 17th and 19th on the ladder following seven rounds for a 1-1-2 tally. Those numbers do not entitle Lyon to the respect that it is receiving from bookmakers ahead of its UEFA Champions League trip to Sevilla so one is picking the Red and Whites to win Tuesday’s match at the atmospheric Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan.
Finally, Atletico Madrid eliminated Bayern Munchen from last term’s UEFA Champions League so there is a straightforward argument for the Mattressers being incorrectly priced at odds of +215 with 188Bet and Marathonbet to take out the latest meeting between the powerhouses on Wednesday.
Saul scored the only goal of the game when Atletico Madrid edged Bayern Munchen 1-0 in the first leg of last season’s UEFA Champions League semi-finals and the Mattressers put the tie to bed by drawing 1-1 in Germany one week later.
Atletico Madrid boss Diego Simeone knows his players inside out because he has been at the helm of the Mattressers for several years, whereas Bayern Munchen coach Carlo Ancelotti is still working out how he wants to deploy his men. The UEFA Champions League Group D match is Bayern’s toughest assignment yet under Ancelotti and, at the prices, one cannot allow Atletico to pass by without support.
Rostov to beat PSV
Wednesday 28th September, 19:45 GMT
Sevilla to beat Lyon
Tuesday 27th September, 19:45 GMT
Atletico Madrid to beat Bayern Munich
Wednesday 28th September, 19:45 GMT