PSG Should Not be Odds On to Retain Ligue 1 Title

Monaco beat PSG 3-1 earlier this season.

Paris Saint-Germain has won four consecutive French Ligue 1 championships but it represents poor betting value at odds on to make it five titles on the spin in light of what has happened in the first half of this season.

The French Ligue 1 teams are on holiday for three weeks over the Christmas and New Year period. When the French Ligue 1 sides broke up for the festivities, Paris Saint-Germain had accrued 39 points from its 19 matches, three points fewer than Monaco and another two points less than Nice.

Paris Saint-Germain has struggled in its first French Ligue 1 campaign following the departure of Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Manchester United. Paris Saint-Germain has conceded only one goal in winning its nine French Ligue 1 games against the teams ranked 12th to last inclusively but the Red and Blues have beaten just one of the sides in the top six and their away form has been particularly disappointing.

One does not believe that the French Ligue 1 ladder is the best way to assess the performances of teams, though. One thinks that French Ligue 1 collateral form analysis is the key to understanding the division’s sides and the beauty of the competition draw is that every team played every other outfit prior to tournament’s Christmas and New Year break.

According to one’s French Ligue 1 collateral form analysis, Paris Saint-Germain trails Nice 7-4-8 and the Red and Blues are behind Monaco 7-4-9. So one’s French Ligue 1 number crunching supports Paris Saint-Germain’s ladder position of third. Paris Saint-Germain should not be odds on to take out what would be its seventh French Ligue 1 title since 1970.

One could adopt a relatively conservative French Ligue 1 futures betting approach by dutching Monaco at odds of +350  with BetVictor, and Nice at odds of +450  with several bookmakers, including Bet365 and SkyBet. Dutching at those odds produces a French Ligue 1 futures wager at +148  but one is not interested in waiting five months for a +148  winner when there are bigger fish to fry.

Nice leads the French Ligue 1 championship race but one is of the opinion that Monaco is worth backing to win its first top-flight title since 2000 and its eighth overall.

One’s enthusiasm for Monaco over Nice is that, according to one’s French Ligue 1 collateral form analysis, the Red and Whites enjoy an 11-2-6 lead over the Eaglets. Monaco will host Nice in the second half of the French Ligue 1 season and one believes that it is a plus that the Red and Whites are not reliant on a striker by the name of Mario Balotelli, the enfant terrible who has scored so many goals for Nice.

French Ligue 1 will resume on France 13 January when Lille will entertain Saint-Etienne. The 20th French Ligue 1 round also features Rennes versus Paris Saint-Germain, Nice against Metz and Marseille versus Monaco. There is little argument that Monaco’s French Ligue 1 reappearance is tougher than those of Paris Saint-Germain and Nice but one is taking the long-term view about the Red and Whites. And besides, Marseille is 0-5-5 against the top 11 sides on the French Ligue 1 ladder, including 0-3-0 on its home pitch.

Tips Summary

Monaco to Win Ligue 1
Season 2016/17
Odds:  +350

Ligue 1
Monaco
Nice
PSG

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