Spanish Primera Division minnows Almeria and Cordoba will kick off the third round of matches and their game is the one that throws up the best bet of the 10-match program.
Bwin is offering overly large odds of -149 that the Spanish Primera Division game between Almeria and Cordoba goes under two and a half goals, a option that screamed for one to back based on a wide range of statistics pertaining to the teams.
The strongest statistics are those associated with Cordoba, which gained promotion to the Spanish Primera Division after finishing seventh in the Spanish Segunda Division and taking out the play-offs. Cordoba only qualified for the promotion play-offs because third-placed Barcelona II was ineligible and the qualifiers slid down to seventh place. Cordoba took part in a total of 46 Spanish Segunda Division matches last season – 42 during the regular term and four during the play-offs – and its games averaged 2.04 goals, with 31 of them going under two and a half goals and just two of them going over four and a half goals. It was a good job that Cordoba won promotion because it was a chore to watch.
Each of Cordoba’s first two Spanish Primera Division games has gone under two and a half goals and one of them was away to UEFA Champions League winner Real Madrid. Also, most of Cordoba’s pre-season matches were low-scoring affairs.
Almeria was an over-two-and-a-half-goals friendly side in the Spanish Primera Division last term, with 22 of its 38 games going over the popular total. But Almeria’s first two Spanish Primera Division matches this season have produced a total of three goals and one is willing to go with the flow because most of its over-two-and-a-half-goals games last term were its matches against the competition’s big boys.
The vanilla Spanish Primera Division bets that one likes are wins for Eibar and Valencia versus Deportivo and Espanyol respectively. Eibar is trading at odds of +110 with several bookmakers, including 888sport, Coral and Unibet, while Bwin and Ladbrokes are quoting odds of -154 about Valencia.
Eibar and Deportivo finished first and second respectively in the Spanish Segunda Division to earn their spots in the top flight. Eibar had the better of Deportivo head to head, with the former winning 2-1 at home and drawing 1-1 on the road, although it is worth noting that the latter’s away record of 11 wins, three draws and seven losses was the finest in the league by three wins and four points.
Arguably, Eibar has made a better start to Spanish Primera Division life than Deportivo. Eibar has beaten Sociedad 1-0 at home and fallen 1-2 at Atletico Madrid, whereas Deportivo has lost 1-2 at Granada and drawn 2-2 at home to Rayo Vallecano, equalising with a last-gasp penalty kick.
Valencia entertains Espanyol and, even though the Spanish Primera Division season is only two rounds old, one has a collateral form line on which to base one’s assessment – Valencia drew 1-1 at Sevilla in round one and Espanyol lost 1-2 at home to Sevilla in round two. Also, Valencia fought back from 0-1 down at Sevilla after Rodrigo de Paul was sent off 64 seconds after entering the match as a substitute.
Each of the last eight games between Valencia and Espanyol has gone over two and a half goals so trend followers will be investigating the odds about that streak extending to nine but one will settle for backing the home team. Valencia won 10 of its 19 Spanish Primera Division home matches last term, while Espanyol lost on 11 of its 19 top-flight trips.
Almeria and Cordoba Under 2.5 goals
12th September 20:00 GMT
Where to Bet: Bwin
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