Collateral form analysis is one’s main method of identifying value on football coupons and it is a statistical quirk that each of one’s English Premier League selections boast the same collateral form edge over their weekend opponents.
Of one’s three English Premier League picks, only Chelsea is on its travels but the Blues represent the best bet on the card at to beat Stoke.
Without the distraction of UEFA competition action and with the addition of several signings, including manager Antonio Conte and midfielder N’Golo Kante, Chelsea is running away with the English Premier League championship, leading the ladder by 10 points with most teams having 11 games left. Chelsea did not get off to the best of starts under Conte but the Blues boss has worked out how to extract the most out of his players, coaching them to 18 victories in their last 21 English Premier League matches. And Kante is odds on to be the English Premier League’s player of the season.
Stoke is ninth on the English Premier League ladder but one is not going overboard about the Potters even though they are set to finish in the top half. Stoke has not beaten an English Premier League side ranked higher than 12th, with the Potters having numbers of 0-7-8 from their 15 games positioned in the top 11. Stoke visited Chelsea on New Year’s Eve and, while the Potters twice equalised, the English Premier League fixture ended 4-2 to the Blues.
According to one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis, Chelsea enjoys a 14-2-3 advantage over Stoke and, before one reached the bottom half of the ladder, it was 10-0-0 in favour of the champion-elect Blues. One is satisfied that Chelsea deserves its odds-on status of 31/501.62-1610.62-1.610.62 with Coral and SkyBet.
Seventh will entertain 18th when Everton welcomes Hull to Goodison Park for their English Premier League match on Saturday as the Toffees push for a top-six finish and the Tigers strive to get out of the relegation zone.
Everton is a level below the English Premier League title contenders and it needs to improve its road results if it is going to challenge for silverware. But Everton is 9-4-1 at home in the English Premier League, whereas Hull is 1-2-11 in its divisional away games, including losing by at least two goals at Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool, Arsenal, West Bromwich, Bournemouth, Leicester and Sunderland.
Like Chelsea over Stoke, Everton holds a 14-2-3 English Premier League collateral form lead over Hull and so the Toffees warrant support at odds of 53/1001.53-1890.53-1.890.53 with several bookmakers, including 188Bet, Coral and Paddy Power. The reverse English Premier League fixture ended all square, Everton equalising twice to force a 2-2 draw on the road.
Finally, Tottenham’s English Premier League collateral form advantage over Southampton stands at 13-2-4 so Spurs are attractive at odds of 18/251.72-1390.72-1.390.72 with Bwin to beat the Saints.
Tottenham striker Harry Kane is forecast to be out of action for four to six weeks but he scored only one of his team’s four goals when they thrashed Southampton 4-1 in December’s reverse English Premier League fixture. Tottenham led 2-1 before Southampton was reduced to 10 players in the 57th minute, Nathan Redmond receiving a straight red card.
Similar to Stoke, Southampton has earned its rank in the middle of the English Premier League ladder without doing well versus the division’s heavyweights. Southampton is 1-3-6 in its 10 English Premier League matches against higher ranked opponents, defeating Everton 1-0 at home.
Chelsea to beat Stoke
Saturday 18th March, 15:00 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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