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Poland to have more corner kicks than Northern Ireland is the best bet available on Sunday’s three UEFA Euro 2016 games that will take place across two tournament groups.
Back-up Northern Ireland striker Will Grigg may be on fire according to the terrace chant that has taken the football world by storm but one expects that Michael O’Neill’s side will spend most of its UEFA Euro 2016 adventure defending.
O’Neill experimented with a 3-5-2 formation during Northern Ireland’s recent away friendly versus fellow UEFA Euro 2016 qualifier Slovakia and the result was a clean sheet in a 0-0 draw. One expects that Northern Ireland will play extremely conservatively against UEFA Euro 2016 Group C favourites Germany and Poland, looking to limit the damage versus those teams and get a positive result versus Ukraine in its other pool match. Any side that plays 3-5-2 is vulnerable to wide attackers and Poland has two of them in Jakub Blaszczykowski and Kamil Grosicki, whose job it is to service one of the world’s hottest forwards, Robert Lewandowski. The odds are that Blaszczykowski and Grosicki will experience joy against Northern Ireland and that should result in corner kicks for Poland, one of UEFA Euro 2016’s most popular dark horses.
No UEFA Euro 2016 qualifier has less ball possession than Northern Ireland’s 45 per cent and one would argue that the Northern Irish did not encounter any good sides in their preliminary section. Poland is the strongest team that Northern Ireland has faced in a competitive game since November 2013 when Portugal won 4-2 in Belfast despite having Helder Postiga sent off just before half time.
Poland will be popular at odds of around -133 to defeat Northern Ireland but one favours the odds of -227 that BetVictor is offering about the Poles having more corner kicks than the Northern Irish. It is a sound investment.
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Bet365 is quoting odds of +225 about Ukraine right back Artem Fedetskiy being shown a card in his side’s UEFA Euro 2016 Group C match against Germany. One expects that Ukraine will have to do a great amount of defending versus Germany, which keeps the ball better almost every other team on the planet. Fedetskiy earned four yellow cards during Ukraine’s UEFA Euro 2016 qualifying campaign, including home and away cautions against Spain, which is the national side that is most similar to Germany. According to UEFA, Fedetskiy was not Ukraine’s most ill-disciplined player during UEFA Euro 2016 qualifying but the man who was – Denys Garmash – is unlikely to see 90 minutes of action versus Germany. For the record, Fedetskiy committed 16 fouls in 945 minutes of UEFA Euro 2916 qualifying play compared to Garmash’s 14 fouls, two yellow cards and one red card in just 315 minutes.
Finally, one is surprised that Croatia is such a warm order to get the better of Turkey in their UEFA Euro 2016 Group D game. According to the World Football Elo Ratings, Croatia and Turkey are ranked 18th and 17th respectively and, while one understands why bookmakers are favouring the Croatians due to their high-profile midfielders, one cannot understand why they are trading at not much north of even money.
UEFA Euro 2016 Group D is one of the most competitive pools in the competition and the fact that Croatia against Turkey is its opening match may result in both teams treading extremely carefully. All things considered one is keen on backing Croatia and Turkey to share the spoils, an option that is available at odds of +234 with Marathonbet.
Poland to have more corners than Northern Ireland
Sunday 12th June, 17:00 GMT
Artem Fedetskiy to receive a card – Germany vs Ukraine
Sunday 12th June, 20:00 GMT
Croatia and Turkey to Draw
Sunday 12th June, 14:00 GMT
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