Poland is a fair price to beat Ireland in Sunday’s huge UEFA European Championship match between the Group D rivals from which at least one team will qualify for France next year.
The UEFA European Championship will beckon for Poland if it either beats Ireland or holds the Irish to a draw featuring fewer than four goals, while Ireland will qualify if it wins in Warsaw or takes part in a draw featuring at least four goals. Poland and Ireland will progress at the expense of Germany if the Warsaw game is a draw and the Germans lose their match against Georgia in Leipzig, although one cannot make a case for that improbable scenario playing out.
The state of the UEFA European Championship Group D ladder means that, unless Ireland jags an early goal in Warsaw, it is going to have to take major risks at some stage versus a Poland side that has the world’s hottest striker, Robert Lewandowski, leading its line. Lewandowski has scored eight goals in Poland’s last four UEFA European Championship games and he has been scoring for fun in Bayern Munchen’s colours, including five goals in nine minutes against Wolfsburg in a German Bundesliga match that will live long in one’s memory.
Poland led Ireland from the 26th minute to the 91st minute of the first UEFA European Championship Group D game between the teams, Shane Long cancelling out Slawomir Peszko’s goal to ensure that the sides shared the spoils in what was an equitable result. One’s collateral form analysis of the eight UEFA European Championship Group D rounds in which Poland and Ireland have encountered other teams favours the Poles five to one with two ties so one is happy to back the hosts at odds of -105 with SkyBet to secure three points.
One was quite taken aback by Betfred’s odds of -286 about a Slovakia away victory over Luxembourg in Monday’s UEFA European Championship Group C match that means a lot to the Slovaks – they are guaranteed to qualify along with Spain if they post a win in the tiny grand duchy.
Slovakia choked at home to UEFA European Championship Group C also-ran Belarus on Friday, which perhaps explains why the Slovaks are at decent odds for their Monday assignment. One cannot overlook the fact that Luxembourg lost the reverse UEFA European Championship Group C fixture 0-3 and that Slovakia put its cue in the rack after just 40 minutes of that game. Luxembourg has scored only one goal in its last seven UEFA European Championship Group C matches and, while it is not Europe’s worst national side by some distance, it is not in the same class as Slovakia when both teams play to their potential. Slovakia should get the win that it needs.
Finally, one would rather back Turkey to defeat Iceland than any other result in the UEFA European Championship Group A game that is likely to seal the fate of the Netherlands.
Turkey took advantage of a disinterested Czech Republic in the penultimate round of UEFA European Championship Group A matches and, back on home soil versus the section’s other automatic qualifier, one cannot go past the Turks at odds of -161 with Coral. Iceland failed to beat Latvia at home on Saturday so one does not hold out much hope for it doing a big favour to the Netherlands, which will miss out on the play-offs unless it beats the Czech Republic and Turkey fails to take something out of its against the Icelanders.
Poland to beat Ireland
11th October 19:45 GMT
Slovakia to beat Luxembourg
12th October 19:45 GMT
Turkey to beat Iceland
13th October 19:45 GMT
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